Capital City Bank Group, Inc. (CCBG)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.34-2.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CCBG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CCBG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-01-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026, Capital City Bank Group, Inc. (“CCBG”) issued an earnings press release reporting CCBG’s financial results for the three and twelve month periods ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished under
Why it matters: Management said deposit product updates would cut some fee income from Q3. A recovery would show other fee sources offset the change.
Watch forQ4 noninterest income rises above Q3's $19.4 million, with deposit fees no lower than Q3.
Also watch forQ4 noninterest income falls below $19.4 million, and deposit fees fall further from Q3.
Why it matters: Costs are still above Q1 levels despite a small Q3 drop. Another increase could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifQ4 noninterest expense exceeds the Q2 level of $42.6 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 noninterest expense is at or below Q3's $42.3 million.
Why it matters: Average loans fell in each reported 2026 quarter and were down 4.8% year over year in Q1. A turn in loan balances would ease pressure on loan income.
Supportive ifQ4 average loans held for investment rise from Q3, or end-of-quarter loans exceed the Q3 level.
Worry ifQ4 average loans held for investment fall again, or end-of-quarter loans drop below the Q3 level.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 4.42% in Q3 as new bond yields rose and deposit costs fell. More growth would support earnings.
Supportive ifThe next reported net interest margin is above 4.42%, with deposit costs no higher than 74 basis points.
Worry ifThe next reported margin falls below 4.35%, or deposit costs rise above 76 basis points.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $182 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,294 loss on $10,000 · 12.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 deposits fell as public fund balances dropped with the season. Core deposits grew. But a lasting drop could limit lending and raise funding pressure.
Watch forQ4 total deposits rise above the Q3 level of $3.667 billion. Management also reports continued growth in core deposits.
Also watch forQ4 total deposits fall below $3.667 billion, with no reported core deposit growth.