Capital City Bank Group, Inc. (CCBG)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.84+0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CCBG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 21.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CCBG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-01-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026, Capital City Bank Group, Inc. (“CCBG”) issued an earnings press release reporting CCBG’s financial results for the three and twelve month periods ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished under
Why it matters: Stable loan balances show demand and credit health. Drops may mean problems.
Supportive ifLoan balances increase or decline less than 1% in Q3.
Worry ifLoan balances decrease by more than 1% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader economic issues. It affects Capital City Bank's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Better expense control helps earnings grow. It shows management cares about keeping costs down.
Supportive ifNoninterest expense growth in Q3 is less than 2% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifNoninterest expense growth exceeds 5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rising provision indicates growing credit risk. It could hurt earnings and investor confidence.
Worry ifCredit loss provision remains at or below $1 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCredit loss provision exceeds $1 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $230 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,294 loss on $10,000 · 12.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits may mean customers are unhappy. It could also show competition.
Worry ifDeposit balances decrease more than 1% in Q3 compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifDeposit balances go up or stay the same in Q3 compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Controlling expenses is crucial for maintaining profit margins. It shows how well the bank manages costs.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows expenses growing less than 3% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows expenses growing more than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping credit performance strong is important for stability. It shows how well the bank manages risk.
Worry ifQ2 report shows net charge-offs below 0.5% of total loans.
Less concerning ifQ2 report shows net charge-offs above 1.0% of total loans.
Why it matters: Earnings growth from deposits is key for Capital City Bank's future. It shows how well they attract and keep customers.
Supportive ifThe Q2 earnings report shows deposit growth adds at least 5% to total earnings.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report shows deposit growth adds less than 2% to total earnings.
Why it matters: Strong growth in noninterest income signals effective management of fees and services. This can boost overall earnings.
Supportive ifNoninterest income for Q3 increases more than 3.3% compared to Q2.
Worry ifNoninterest income growth is less than 3.3% compared to Q2.
Why it matters: A big drop in loan balances may show less demand or credit problems. This can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifLoan balances decrease more than 1.3% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifLoan balances stabilize or grow in Q3 compared to Q2.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean higher credit risk. This can hurt profits and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs rise above 14 basis points in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 14 basis points in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin shows better profits from lending. This can boost overall earnings.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 4.35% in Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.35% in Q3.