Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Century Communities, Inc. (CCS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$57.04-0.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.50 → 2.77 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CCS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations improves from -$50M in Q1 2026 | A supporting condition in Century Communities, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -$50M. | Improving | Cash flow falls below -$55M over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-135.036M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -$50M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026-135,036,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CCS is a cyclical homebuilder whose results depend in part on housing-sector conditions, rather than a steady-growth business. The multi-year view is on watch after a recent earnings miss, a sharp drop in company momentum, and performance below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes CCS as cheap versus peers, while also indicating a sizable premium relative to peers and an expectations gap below the model’s benchmark. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified and fragility low, so the evidence does not point to a simple case of excessive optimism despite weak execution quality.
Near term, recent performance is mixed: revenue rose between Q1 and Q3 as communities expanded, but deliveries fell from Q2 to Q3 and adjusted gross margin eased. Management remains stable, with cost control showing some progress, while the maintained dividend and lower repurchases point to narrower capital-return activity. An earnings miss and erratic surprises add risk, though the stated near-term miss risk is low.
Over the next few quarters, a key test is whether CCS can turn its larger community base into more home deliveries while stabilizing margins. A reversal of its recent guidance raise would damage management credibility; continued strong results from sector bellwethers DHI, PHM, and LEN could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them could weaken it.
For the 1–3 year view, CCS has evidence of expansion but not yet consistent delivery or margin progress, and the latest earnings miss has weakened the thesis. The central question is whether execution improves without a guidance reversal as the housing-sector backdrop develops. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Century Communities, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Demand not weaker than current levels. |
| Under Pressure |
| Demand worsens significantly, hurting sales and revenue |
Q3 2026 revenue miss vs target; 2026 guidance $3.3B-$3.4B Q3 2026 revenue missed estimates; Moody's flagged weak demand; 2026 guidance set at $3.3B-$3.4B. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from $33M in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Century Communities, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $33M. | Improving | Operating income falls below $30M over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $14.56M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $33M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 202614,560,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $3.65B in FY26 | A primary condition in Century Communities, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.65B. | Improving | Revenue falls below $3.5B in FY26 | Revenue: $864.467M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.65B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026864,467,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.10 → $2.77 · observed estimates
$3.96B → $3.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.10 | $3,958,050,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.59 | $3,947,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.50 | $3,962,678,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.79 | $3,913,343,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.79 | $3,913,343,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.79 | $3,913,333,333 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.77 | $3,569,161,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.77 | $3,569,161,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.77 | $3,569,161,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.77 | $3,569,161,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.77 | $3,569,161,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.77 | $3,569,161,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.77 | $3,569,161,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.