Century Communities, Inc. (CCS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$64.51+0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CCS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
CCS — capital allocation
Dated 2025-09-17
by reference. This 8-K does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, the Notes or any other security, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of any securities in any state or jurisdiction in which, or to any persons to whom, such offering, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Forward-Looking Statements This 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, and such statements should not be interpreted…
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This can also change how confident consumers feel. It affects homebuying.
Watch forThe FOMC's July 29 decision shows stable or lower interest rates. This boosts confidence.
Also watch forThe FOMC raised interest rates. This leads to lower consumer confidence and less homebuying.
Why it matters: Higher cancellation rates may show weaker buyer commitment in a tough market.
Worry ifCancellation rates above 20% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCancellation rates are still below 20%.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance show management's confidence in the market. It signals future growth.
Watch forManagement raises Q3 revenue guidance above $927 million. This shows confidence.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q3 revenue guidance below $927 million. This shows caution.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends may show how much management trusts cash flow and future profits.
Watch forAn increase in the quarterly cash dividend from $0.32 per share.
Also watch forA decrease or suspension of the quarterly cash dividend.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $393 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,501 loss on $10,000 · 35.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower cancellation rates show buyer commitment. This means more market stability and is vital for growth.
Supportive ifCancellation rates stay below levels seen in 2025.
Worry ifCancellation rates rise above levels seen in 2025.
Why it matters: A margin above this level would show effective cost control and pricing power. It indicates financial health.
Supportive ifHomebuilding gross margin is over 20.0%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifHomebuilding gross margin falls below 20.0%. This shows cost pressures.
Why it matters: Strong deliveries show stable demand. This helps revenue growth and builds investor confidence.
Supportive ifDeliveries of 2,500 homes or more in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDeliveries fall below 2,500 homes in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improved consumer confidence could boost home sales and demand for new homes.
Supportive ifThe consumer confidence index shows an increase in July.
Worry ifThe consumer confidence index shows a decrease in July.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better efficiency. It also means better financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: Deliveries below this number would show slower growth for the company.
Worry ifQ3 home deliveries were below 2,500 homes.
Less concerning ifQ3 home deliveries were above 2,500 homes.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show problems with costs and pricing.
Worry ifQ3 homebuilding gross margin was less than 20%.
Less concerning ifQ3 homebuilding gross margin was more than 20%.
Why it matters: Falling below this level would show weaker demand in a tough market.
Worry ifQ3 net new home contracts reported below 2,500.
Less concerning ifQ3 net new home contracts reported above 2,500.