Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)

NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04

$21.24-1.89%

Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Value re-rating

Intact: The reason to own it still holds.

The bull case

Coeur Mining plans to spend up to $337 million on capital projects in 2026. It aims to return cash to shareholders with a $750 million buyback program and a $0.02 per share dividend. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings ratio of 14.07, below peers. Analysts expect revenue growth of about 81% next year.

The bear case

The recent sharp selloff shows investor concerns despite no thesis-breaking news. Earnings estimates have been revised down slightly. Capital spending and dividends may not drive enough growth or returns. The gold sector faces headwinds that could pressure margins and cash flow.

What's priced in

The price is about 26% below our fair value near $22 and 10% below the Street median target of $24.5. The market expects strong revenue growth of 81%, but our fair value is more conservative. The recent selloff reflects risk despite decent valuation.

What has to stay true

Capital expenditures up to $337 million in 2026Intact
Capital Allocationprimary<=337 USD_MILLIONS · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $337 million in FY26
Maintain dividend of $0.02 per shareIntact
Capital Allocationsupporting>=0.02 USD_PER_SHARE dividend · FY26 (qualitative)
Breaks if: Dividend falls below $0.02 per share in FY26
EPS of at least $0.02 per share in FY26Intact
Cash Flowprimary>=0.02 USD_PER_SHARE · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.02 per share in FY26

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-04· Version 1· Status: Intact· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

CDE's long-term thesis remains intact despite recent earnings miss and mixed management execution.

What kind of bet this is

CDE is positioned as a cyclical investment within the Materials sector. The current thesis state reflects a strong recent financial performance, but management's volatility and high risk create uncertainty.

What's priced into Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)

The market currently reflects a low expectations gap, indicating that CDE's valuation is aligned with peers. The stock is not seen as fragile, suggesting that recent performance is justified.

What the fundamentals likely do

CDE's fundamentals are likely to show continued strong performance, with management focused on enhancing capital returns and ramping up production from recent acquisitions. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, given the high miss probability in the industry.

What Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) hinges on

The future of CDE hinges on management's ability to meet production targets and maintain guidance. Additionally, inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial for momentum.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company achieved record output and aims for strong 2026 results. However, it also reported a significant earnings miss in its latest release.

as of 2026-09-04

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.