Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cardlytics Inc (CDLX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.190.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CDLX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete 1-for-10 reverse stock split | They plan a 1-for-10 reverse stock split. | Intact | Reverse stock split not completed by mid-2026 | 1-for-10 split filed 2026-06-03 vs target 2026-06-30 Company filed Charter Amendment on June 3, 2026, effecting a 1-for-10 reverse stock split and reducing authorized shares. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making on the broader earnings-quality measure. The multi-year view is in a watch state: recent revenue and adjusted EBITDA improved, but execution remains mixed and performance has lagged its industry cohort.
The valuation model describes CDLX as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; this does not remove the risks tied to losses and uncertain execution.
Near term, revenue rose from $34.3 million in 2026-Q1 to $36.9 million in 2026-Q2, while adjusted EBITDA increased from $0.2 million to $1.7 million and its margin rose from 0.7% to 4.6%. However, adjusted EBITDA remained below the prior-year level, monthly qualified users fell from 197 million to 185.4 million, and a 2026-Q2 earnings miss leaves guidance execution as a key risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued sequential growth, stronger margins, and progress toward self-sustainability without further user declines. A guidance cut would add pressure, while lower interest rates or continued strength among sector bellwethers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CDLX’s long-term thesis has early evidence of improving operations, but remains fragile because profitability is not established and delivery is mixed. The next evidence on guidance, user engagement, and margins matters most. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Cardlytics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves toward -$1.1 next quarter. |
| Broken |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.1 next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Meet Nasdaq minimum bid price to maintain listing | The company works to meet Nasdaq listing rules. | Improving | Fail to meet Nasdaq minimum bid price within 12 months | Bid $2.19 vs >=$1.00 target Nasdaq delisting notice in June 2026; 1-for-10 reverse split executed; current price $2.19 exceeds $1.00 requirement. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $37.5 million next quarter | Cardlytics aims for $37.5M revenue next quarter. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $35 million next quarter | Revenue: $36.882M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=37.5 USD_MILLIONS. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 5, 202636,882,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.55 → $-6.90 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-7.35 | $163,962,503 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.55 | $163,962,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-7.35 | $163,962,503 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-6.97 | $163,412,003 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-5.12 | $160,919,420 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-5.12 | $160,919,420 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-5.12 | $160,919,420 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-3.29 | $160,919,420 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-6.97 | $163,412,003 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.29 | $160,919,420 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-6.97 | $163,412,003 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-6.97 | $163,412,003 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-6.97 | $163,412,003 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-6.97 | $163,412,003 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-6.97 | $163,412,003 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-6.97 | $163,412,003 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-6.90 | $160,919,416 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-6.90 | $160,919,416 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-6.90 | $160,919,416 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-6.90 | $160,792,555 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.