Cardlytics Inc (CDLX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.190.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDLX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -90.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
CDLX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On August 5, 2026, Cardlytics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, as well as information regarding a conference call to discuss these financial results and the Company’s recent corporate highlights. The Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information included in this
Why it matters: Cash used in operations rose from $5.6 million in Q1 to $8.6 million in Q2. More cash use would add pressure as the company seeks self-sustainability.
Worry ifQ3 cash used in operating activities is more than $8.6 million, worse than Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash used in operating activities is less than $5.6 million, better than Q1.
Why it matters: Cardlytics reported $1.7 million in Q2, but cash flow stayed negative. Another loss would make it harder to support itself.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $0, outside the guided range of $0 to $3 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is at least $1.7 million, matching or beating Q2.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose from $34.3 million to $36.9 million. A Q3 result above guidance would extend that growth.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q3 revenue is above the $39 million top of guidance, with sequential revenue growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $34 million, the low end of guidance, or falls below Q2's $36.9 million.
Why it matters: Billings fell 34% year over year in Q2. A result above guidance would show demand is stronger than the company forecast.
Supportive ifQ3 billings exceed $67 million, the top of guidance, and year-over-year decline is smaller than 20%.
Worry ifQ3 billings fall below $61 million, the low end of guidance, or the year-over-year decline exceeds 27%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$326 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $959 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,091 loss on $10,000 · 90.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Users fell from 197 million in Q1 to 185.4 million in Q2. More losses could limit reach for advertisers.
Worry ifQ3 monthly qualified users fall below 185 million, below the Q2 level of 185.4 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 monthly qualified users rise above 197 million, back above the Q1 level.