Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cardinal Infrastructure Group, Inc. (CDNL)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.59-15.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.63 → 2.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CDNL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of A.L. Grading Contractors | A supporting condition in Cardinal Infrastructure Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration by end of 2026. | Improving | Acquisition fails to contribute to growth or causes losses | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an expansion-driven growth business, with acquisitions helping broaden its service platform. The multi-year view is intact, though confidence is medium and the risk level is elevated.
The valuation evidence describes CDNL as cheap versus peers, with no measured premium to peers. Its valuation score recently rose from 54.2 to 71.4, but the snapshot does not explain what expectations that change reflects.
Near term, revenue growth and raised full-year guidance support the expansion plan, while acquisitions have added broader turnkey capabilities. The main fundamental concern is margin pressure: adjusted EBITDA margin fell from 16.0% in Q1 to 12.4% in Q2, below the 16% to 18% outlook. The next results carry added uncertainty because CDNL is smaller and industry peers have recently missed.
The key company-specific test is whether CDNL can deliver its raised guidance without another reversal, which would also damage management credibility. Margins need to recover toward the outlook as investment and costs are managed. Sector signals matter too: continued strength from PWR, FIX, and EME could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on continued expansion, delivery on raised guidance, and a recovery in margins. Revenue progress is encouraging, but margin execution and the elevated near-term risk remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Cardinal Infrastructure Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20 PERCENT. |
| Broken |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 20% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “That strength is why we're both raising our full-year revenue guidance, to a midpoint reflecting over 95% growth from 2025, and accelerating our investment in corporate infrastructure to fully capture the opportunity in front of us, which reshapes our 2026 margin outlook.” “Even so, our conviction in this platform's medium-term profitability is unchanged, and we still see a clear path to grow margins from here," continued Spivey.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
2026 revenue at least $675 million | A primary condition in Cardinal Infrastructure Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=675 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $675 million in FY26 | Revenue: $226.934M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=675 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026226,934,438 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.13 → $2.27 · observed estimates
$0.81B → $1.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.03 | $797,625,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.13 | $805,083,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.24 | $1,065,137,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.24 | $1,065,137,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.28 | $1,067,770,332 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.28 | $1,067,770,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.28 | $1,067,770,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.28 | $1,067,770,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.28 | $1,067,770,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.28 | $1,067,770,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.28 | $1,067,770,332 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.23 | $1,050,827,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.63 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.56 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.56 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.56 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.56 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.56 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.56 | $1,068,902,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.27 | $1,107,542,200 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.