Cardinal Infrastructure Group, Inc. (CDNL)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.43+3.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDNL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CDNL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 11, 2026, Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, and other related information. Also on August 11, 2026, the Company made available on its website at www.cardinalinfrastructuregroup.com certain supplemental information concerning the Company’s financial results and operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Copies…
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition is important for growth and market reach.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of A.L. Grading Contractors is now complete.
Worry ifAcquisition is delayed or not completed as planned.
Why it matters: High growth would show strong demand and good execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $335 million, maintaining over 100% growth YoY.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 80% YoY, signaling potential demand issues.
Why it matters: Confirming the new revenue guidance would show strong growth momentum and market confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue guidance of $880M-$900M for 2026.
Worry ifManagement revises revenue guidance down from $880M-$900M.
Why it matters: The new revenue guidance shows that management expects growth to continue.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance confirmed in the range of $675 million to $685 million.
Worry ifGuidance is not confirmed or revised down from the current range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$409 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $820 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,325 loss on $10,000 · 63.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the margin shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 20% in Q2 results.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 20% in Q2 results.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key for growth and integration in the Atlanta market. It could boost revenue and margins.
Supportive ifThe Allied Paving deal will finish in early October 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or fails to close as planned.
Why it matters: Margin recovery is key for long-term profit. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin improves back to 16% or higher in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin stays below 12% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows future revenue potential and demand strength in Cardinal's markets.
Supportive ifBacklog increases by at least 10% from $866 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or grows less than 5% in Q3 2026.