Cardinal Infrastructure Group, Inc. (CDNL)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.59-15.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDNL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 227 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 16 industry peers
CDNL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-19
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger On October 13, 2026, Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (“Cardinal”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Original Merger Agreement”) by and among Cardinal, CHBC Intermediate Holdco, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Cardinal (“Merger Sub 1”), CHBC Holding Company, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of Cardinal (“Merger Sub 2”), HBC Holdco, Inc.,…
Why it matters: The $357.5 million deal adds a Central Florida platform and about $350 million in backlog. A delay or failed close would block those gains.
Watch forCardinal reports that the Hughes Brothers deal closed by December 31, 2026.
Also watch forCardinal reports that the deal did not close by year-end, or that the agreement ended.
Why it matters: The company raised its revenue range after strong growth and new acquisitions. Q3 results will test whether that pace continues.
Watch forQ3 revenue is at least $226.9 million, the Q2 level, and management keeps the $880M–$900M range.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $226.9 million, or management lowers the 2026 range below $880 million.
Why it matters: Up to $97.5 million in extra payment depends on the acquired firm's 2026 EBITDA. The result will show how its first months performed.
Watch forCardinal reports Hughes Brothers' adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months ending December 31, 2026. It also states whether an earnout is due.
Also watch forCardinal reports EBITDA below the earnout terms. No extra payment is due.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$375 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $911 loss on $10,000 · 9.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,666 loss on $10,000 · 86.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.