Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$329.52+1.78%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDNS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 66.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CDNS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 26, 2026 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (“Cadence”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.01 and a copy of the commentary by the Chief Financial Officer of Cadence regarding Cadence's financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.02, and the press release and the commentary…
Why it matters: Cadence raised its full-year EPS range to $8.37–$8.43. Meeting the floor would support the latest earnings outlook; missing it would challenge it.
Watch forCadence reports 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS of at least $8.37.
Also watch forCadence reports 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS below $8.37, or lowers the full-year range.
Why it matters: Backlog rose from $8.0 billion in Q1 to $8.2 billion in Q3. A drop would test whether recent order strength continues.
Watch forQuarter-end backlog reaches at least $8.2 billion. This shows orders exceed recognized revenue.
Also watch forQuarter-end backlog falls below $8.0 billion, reversing the rise seen from Q1 to Q3.
Why it matters: Cadence cited over 100 active customer engagements. But this does not show how many customers pay or use the tools widely.
Supportive ifCadence reports more paid AI Super Agent deployments. Or it names customers using them in production.
Worry ifCadence reports fewer active engagements or delayed deployments. Or it reports no paid use in its next results.
Why it matters: Cadence raised its 2026 growth outlook three times, from about 17% to 21%. Results near that level would support the broad demand story.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $6.387 billion, the low end of the latest outlook.
Worry ifFull-year revenue falls below $6.387 billion, or Cadence cuts its 21% growth outlook before year-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $396 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,421 loss on $10,000 · 34.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The board approved another $2.5 billion for repurchases, and Cadence bought $400 million of shares in Q3. The next filings can show whether purchases continue.
Supportive ifA later filing reports more shares bought back under the new authorization.
Worry ifA later filing reports no repurchases, or Cadence suspends or ends the program.