NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-08
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $374.06. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $371 the market pays 49× p/e — above the 38× p/e peer median but in line with its own 50× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $211 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $385–$440. Note: our $211 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($385–$440). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $525 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $425.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $127.05 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $124.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $63.73 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$385.00 – $440.00 (median $425.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 351% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 14.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $4.83/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $163.54 |
| 36.8 |
| 4.44 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $84.60 | 14.4 | 6.24 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $96.77 | 18.5 | 5.22 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $239.68 | 36.8 | 6.51 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $66.38 | 3.3 | 20.20 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $93.07 | 14.3 | 6.51 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $45.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $326.03 | 50.1 | 6.51 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $286.70 | 36.8 | 7.78 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $256.20 | 36.8 | 6.96 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $132.96 | 18.5 | 7.18 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $412.47 | 36.8 | 11.20 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $100.50 | 3.3 | 30.58 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $160.17 | 14.3 | 11.20 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $561.06 | 50.1 | 11.20 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $345.59 | 36.8 | 9.38 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $164.34 | 18.5 | 8.87 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $514.55 | 36.8 | 13.97 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $125.38 | 3.3 | 38.15 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $199.82 | 14.3 | 13.97 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $699.92 | 50.1 | 13.97 | Analyst | medium |
