COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.16-0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
CDP — earnings in line
Dated 2026-02-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 5, 2026, COPT Defense Properties (the “Company”) issued a press release relating to its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2025 and, in connection with this release, is making available certain supplemental information pertaining to its properties and operations. The earnings release and supplemental information are included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and are incorporated herein by reference. The information includ…
Why it matters: Changes in leasing rates can show shifts in demand or market conditions.
Watch forLeasing rates go up, suggesting strong demand for properties.
Also watch forLeasing rates are falling. This may show weakness in the market.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth shows the company is expanding. This matches management's growth plan.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 5% YoY in the next earnings release.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 4% YoY. This shows stagnation.
Why it matters: High occupancy rates show demand for properties. It reflects the strength of the portfolio.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates are over 96.4% in Q2.
Worry ifOccupancy rates fall below 96.4% in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable NOI indicates good property performance. It shows the health of the portfolio.
Supportive ifSame property NOI stays above $110M for Q2.
Worry ifSame property NOI drops below $110M for Q2.
Why it matters: A significant rise in debt could signal financial stress or aggressive expansion. This impacts financial health.
Worry ifTotal debt exceeds $2.8 billion in the next reporting period.
Less concerning ifTotal debt remains below $2.8 billion in the next reporting period.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates show how much people want properties near U.S. Government sites. High rates mean strong demand from tenants.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates for the Defense/IT Portfolio will stay above 96% next quarter.
Worry ifOccupancy rates for the Defense/IT Portfolio will drop below 96% next quarter.
Why it matters: Another earnings beat would show a good trend. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe Q3 earnings report shows results that are better than analyst expectations.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report falls short of analyst expectations.
Why it matters: Changes in debt levels impact financial stability and growth. Keeping an eye on this shows financial health.
Watch forTotal debt decreases to below $2.5 billion by the end of Q2 2026.
Also watch forTotal debt increases above $2.7 billion by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or growing revenue is key for keeping investor trust. It helps future growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $197.4M. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $197.4M. This suggests possible revenue problems.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key focus for management. Strong growth would show progress.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower ratio shows better financial health. It indicates less risk in operations.
Supportive ifDebt to assets ratio stays below 58% in Q2.
Worry ifDebt to assets ratio rises above 58% in Q2.
Why it matters: This growth shows how well existing properties are performing. It reflects the quality of the portfolio and tenant demand.
Supportive ifSame property NOI growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Worry ifSame property NOI growth falls below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher FFO means strong operations and helps keep dividends steady.
Supportive ifQ3 FFO is above $81M, showing strong operations.
Worry ifFFO is below $80M, raising worries about how well operations run.
Why it matters: This growth shows the company can make more money. It shows efficiency and tenant demand.
Supportive ifNet income growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifNet income growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost management. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q3 is over $48.2M. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifOperating income for Q3 is below $48.2M. This indicates possible cost problems.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows that management is focused on making more money.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $48.6M, showing continued growth.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $48.6M, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a positive change in the market.
Watch forRevenue growth over 5% year over year shows a strong recovery.
Also watch forRevenue growth under 2% year over year suggests ongoing challenges.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$61 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $168 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,072 loss on $10,000 · 10.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.