Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.27+4.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.47 → 1.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CDRE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $136M and $141M in 2026 | A primary condition in Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$138.5M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $136M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth and acquisition-led industrial business with robust earnings quality and stable management. The long-term thesis is intact, though the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after earnings misses.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes CDRE as cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial premium, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are demanding; however, the evidence says pricing is justified and flags low fragility.
Near-term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA are tracking management’s raised 2026 guidance, helped by strong demand and acquisitions. Capital spending remains within its stated plan so far, but recent earnings misses and an erratic surprise record temper the otherwise neutral performance picture.
Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific risk is a guidance cut, which could prompt lower analyst estimates. The sector backdrop is a headwind, so results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could either sustain or weaken sector support for CDRE.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on delivering the raised growth and profitability plans while managing acquisition execution and a challenging sector backdrop. The business evidence remains supportive, but valuation and recent earnings misses warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans $10 million to $14 million in capital spending. |
| Intact |
| Capex falls outside $10M to $14M range in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $3.453M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$12M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20263,453,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We expect capital expenditures to be in the range of $10 million to $14 million.” “We expect capital expenditures to be in the range of $10 million to $14 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches $736M to $758M in 2026 | A primary condition in Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$747M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $736M in FY26 | Revenue: $202.876M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$747M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026202,876,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.43 → $1.47 · observed estimates
$0.79B → $0.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.43 | $787,558,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.43 | $787,558,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.43 | $787,558,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.43 | $787,558,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.43 | $787,558,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.58 | $788,492,960 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.44 | $788,465,633 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.44 | $788,465,633 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.58 | $788,492,960 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.58 | $788,492,960 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.44 | $788,465,633 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.44 | $788,465,633 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.44 | $788,465,633 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.44 | $788,465,633 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.44 | $788,465,639 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.46 | $809,097,150 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.46 | $809,097,150 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.47 | $809,006,315 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.47 | $809,006,332 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.