Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.76-0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CDRE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 5, 2026, Cadre Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference is a presentation regarding the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release and prese…
Why it matters: New acquisitions can help Cadre's market position. They can also drive future growth.
Supportive ifThere is a new acquisition announcement. It fits well with Cadre's products.
Worry ifNo new M&A activity was announced. This suggests a slowdown in growth plans.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well a company is doing. If it goes below $34M, there may be problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is below $34 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is reported at or above $34 million.
Why it matters: A drop in cash may show liquidity problems. This can affect future investments.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents reported below $41.3 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents stabilize or increase in Q2.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can drive growth and expand market share. They are crucial for Cadre's strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new acquisition that fits the growth strategy.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$189 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $453 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,057 loss on $10,000 · 40.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target is crucial for Cadre's growth story. It shows progress towards annual goals.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported between $736M and $758M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $700M.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow could signal financial stress and impact future growth plans.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in Q3.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains positive in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA target shows Cadre is managing costs while growing revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in the range of $136M-$141M for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $136M. This shows problems with making money.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to maintaining the momentum seen in Q2. A drop would raise concerns about demand.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth is reported above 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher capex could signal aggressive growth plans or potential cash flow issues if not managed well.
Watch forCapital spending is above $14 million for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending is at or below $10 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A high EBITDA margin shows Cadre can manage costs while making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 20% in Q3. This confirms good cost management.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 18%. This suggests possible cost problems.
Why it matters: A shift from the maturing phase could boost Cadre's growth outlook and investor sentiment.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows down to under 5% each year.
Why it matters: More changes in leadership can show problems. This may change the company's plans.
Worry ifMore leaders left the company after June 3, 2026.
Less concerning ifNo more executive changes were announced in the next quarter.