Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Codexis, Inc. (CDXS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.02-5.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CDXS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Enhance cash flow from operations towards positive | Cash flow from operations is also improving but still negative. | Improving | cash flow remains negative below -$10M next year | Cash from operations: $-9.643M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash flow from operations improves from -$13.15M towards zero. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026-9,643,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with a high-risk, loss-making profile, rather than an established compounder. The long-term thesis remains intact, but confidence is medium and the next results matter.
The valuation model describes CDXS as cheap versus peers, while also showing a modest peer premium; model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, revenue has been stable at $15.2 million in the first quarter and $14.9 million in the second, and management reaffirmed its $72 million to $76 million full-year guidance. The quarterly revenue pace is below the midpoint pace, while the operating loss widened to $11.2 million and cash used in operations remained negative, despite some improvement. The next results carry elevated miss risk, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
For the multi-year view, the main test is whether management delivers its revenue guidance and improves operating income and cash flow. A weaker jobs trend could increase recession concerns for cyclical names, while continued strength from major Healthcare companies could support sector momentum. The evidence on these forward factors is limited.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on converting stable revenue into better operating results, with sector support a positive but not a substitute for execution. Losses, high risk, and the possibility of weaker guidance keep the outlook uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operating income from negative towards breakeven |
| It is improving operating income from -$18.95M to -$8.04M. |
| Intact |
| operating income worsens or stays below -$8M next year |
Operating income: $-11.229M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income improves from -$8.04M towards zero. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026-11,229,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $72M to $76M | A primary condition in Codexis, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $72M and <= $76M. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $72M in FY26 | Revenue: $14.915M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $72M and <= $76M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 202614,915,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin for the year 2026 is expected to be in the high 60% range.” “• Codexis expects that its existing cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments will be sufficient to fund its planned operations through the end of 2027.” Revenue was $14.915 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.29 → $-0.28 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.37 | $88,928,330 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.37 | $88,928,330 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.37 | $88,928,330 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.29 | $88,928,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.27 | $88,436,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.28 | $87,688,571 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.