Codexis, Inc. (CDXS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.46+2.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDXS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -87.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 97.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CDXS — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-27
Other Events. On July 23, 2026, Codexis, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Piper Sandler & Co. and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., as representatives (the “Representatives”) of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell 16,666,667 shares (the “Shares”) of its common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (“Common Stock”), to the Underwriters (the “Offering”…
Why it matters: This application is important for starting work on a facility for siRNA production. It shows that Codexis is making progress in its growth plan.
Supportive ifThe application is submitted by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe application is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is key to showing better financial health. It signals progress.
Supportive ifOperating income reported at less than -$5M.
Worry ifOperating income remains worse than -$8M.
Why it matters: New partnerships can help Codexis reach more customers and boost production.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new strategic partnership by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could indicate a positive shift in the healthcare sector. This would benefit Codexis.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is speeding up to nearly 10% each year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down to below 10% each year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$328 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $761 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,449 loss on $10,000 · 64.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations means the company is managing costs well.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported at less than -$10M.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains worse than -$13M.
Why it matters: This guidance is important. It helps show that management's growth plan is working.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for 2026 reaches at least $72 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue for 2026 falls below $72 million.
Why it matters: New leaders can change company plans and how well it performs.
Watch forA new director or leadership plan has been announced.
Also watch forNo new updates or changes in leadership have been announced.
Why it matters: Reaching the midpoint of the $72M-$76M revenue guidance shows strong business growth and success.
Supportive ifCodexis reports total revenue of at least $74 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue falls below $72 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: New data on the ECO Synthesis platform could attract interest and partnerships. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifLook for positive news or new partnerships after the TIDES USA meeting from May 11-14, 2026.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or bad feedback from the TIDES USA meeting.
Why it matters: A deal with a large drug company could raise revenue a lot. It could also build trust.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a licensing deal signed in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifNo licensing deal was announced by the end of 2026. This shows negotiation issues.
Why it matters: New partnerships could improve Codexis' market position and revenue. Delays may show challenges.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new strategic partnership by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations is important for Codexis. It shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative, worse than -$10M in Q2.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue would indicate progress toward the full-year guidance of $72 million to $76 million. It shows demand for products is stable.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is $18 million or more. This supports the full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $17 million. This shows challenges in meeting annual guidance.
Why it matters: Higher operating income helps long-term success. Bigger losses can raise concerns about financial health.
Worry ifOperating loss decreases from $11.2 million in Q2 to below $10 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating loss increases beyond $11.2 million in Q3.
Why it matters: New partnerships may lead to manufacturing agreements. This could increase future revenue. Delays may show problems in working together.
Supportive ifThe company will announce a new manufacturing deal with a drug innovator by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo new agreements are announced by the end of 2026, indicating stalled progress.