NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $245.87. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $246 CEG trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median, and our $245 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $296–$441. Note: our $245 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($296–$441). Not investment advice.
$296.00 – $441.00 (median $359.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-24
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 92% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 9.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.85/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $359.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $90.73 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $51.21 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $146.03 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $281.02 | 24.4 | 11.50 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $248.71 | 77.4 | 3.21 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $242.41 | 24.4 | 9.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $259.19 | 3.1 | 84.37 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $495.33 | 49.9 | 9.92 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $93.99 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $271.46 | 27.4 | 9.92 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $245.22 | 24.4 | 10.04 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $530.87 | 24.4 | 21.72 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $400.62 | 24.4 | 16.39 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $373.08 | 3.1 | 121.44 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $818.60 | 49.9 | 16.39 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $448.62 | 27.4 | 16.39 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $811.24 | 24.4 | 33.20 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $508.07 | 24.4 | 20.79 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $473.14 | 3.1 | 154.01 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1038.17 | 49.9 | 20.79 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $568.95 | 27.4 | 20.79 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
