Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Constellation Energy (CEG)
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$239.65-2.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.31 → 13.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CEG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income from Calpine integration reaches $2.33B in Q1 2026 | The company is integrating Calpine well, raising operating income from $451M to $2.33B in one year. | Under Pressure | Operating income from integration falls below $2.33B in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $580M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2332.0 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026580,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CEG is a large-scale generation business with growth tied in part to integrating Calpine and expanding clean-energy projects. The long-term thesis is intact, while elevated risk and fragile earnings quality temper the otherwise neutral recent performance.
Valuation is modestly above peers, and the evidence labels what is priced in as justified rather than highly fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting the valuation leaves limited room for disappointment, though confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near term, management has raised 2026 EPS guidance, and recent results and added generation capacity show progress, but Calpine integration remains mixed. A recent earnings beat and a low estimated miss probability are supportive, while a past deep miss and recent peer misses remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on capturing value from Calpine without reversing the recent guidance increase. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop, while litigation is a recent risk to monitor.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business setup remains intact, but the premium to peers and fragile execution make integration and guidance credibility important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We remain focused on integrating Calpine, capturing the value of our expanded fleet and investing in opportunities that generate attractive returns.” ““Right now, our focus is on execution – operating at a high level, integrating two great companies, bringing new resources to market, and navigating a changing regulatory environment – led by the women and men who power our business every day.”” Revenue was $7.504 billion in 2026-Q2.
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026EPS of $11.0 to $12.0 per share in 2026 | A primary condition in Constellation Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=11.0 USD_PER_SHARE. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $11.0 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.42 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11.0 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261.42 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fusco Energy Center) • Filed license renewal applications for two New York Nuclear units • Recertified as a Great Place to Work for the fourth straight year, named to The Civic 50 by Points of Light for the second consecutive year, and received DisabilityIN World's Top Disability Inclusive Business recognition Baltimore (Aug 6, 2026), Constellation Energy Corporation (Nasdaq: CEG) today reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026.” “during April 2026, in honor of National Volunteer Month Baltimore (May 11, 2026), Constellation Energy Corporation (Nasdaq: CEG) today reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Expansion of renewable energy projects including nuclear power deals | It is expanding renewable energy projects with long-term nuclear deals. | Intact | Renewable energy project expansion stalls or reverses in next 4 quarters | Qualitative expansion confirmed (3.6 GW deal) Recent news confirms 3.6 GW nuclear deal with Google and $5B DOE loan commitment, reinforcing expansion thesis. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.58 → $13.31 · observed estimates
$35.60B → $34.69B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.58 | $35,604,052,210 | 21 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.58 | $35,604,052,210 | 21 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.58 | $35,604,052,210 | 21 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.58 | $35,604,052,210 | 21 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.56 | $34,521,647,981 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.60 | $35,604,052,210 | 21 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.34 | $34,317,068,554 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.38 | $35,503,579,500 | 21 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.38 | $35,503,579,500 | 21 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.38 | $35,503,579,500 | 21 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.34 | $34,576,316,646 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.34 | $34,576,316,646 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.34 | $34,576,316,646 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.34 | $34,576,316,646 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.31 | $35,170,160,970 | 21 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.31 | $35,170,160,970 | 21 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.31 | $35,170,160,970 | 21 / 13 |
| 2026-08-11 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.32 | $35,120,468,670 | 21 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.26 | $34,473,459,009 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.23 | $34,329,067,202 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.23 | $34,329,067,202 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.23 | $34,329,067,202 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.21 | $34,270,706,126 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.21 | $34,270,706,126 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,462 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,462 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,462 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.27 | $34,288,239,459 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.27 | $34,288,219,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.27 | $34,288,219,460 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.31 | $34,318,362,057 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.31 | $34,318,362,057 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.31 | $34,318,362,057 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.31 | $34,318,362,057 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,490 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,490 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.31 | $34,422,320,086 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,490 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.31 | $34,422,316,493 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.29 | $34,674,562,060 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.29 | $34,674,562,060 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.29 | $34,674,562,060 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.29 | $34,674,562,060 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.31 | $34,746,996,753 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.33 | $34,665,367,389 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.33 | $34,665,367,389 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.33 | $34,665,367,389 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.33 | $34,665,367,389 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.33 | $34,665,367,389 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.33 | $34,566,021,298 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.27 | $34,566,024,444 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.28 | $34,586,620,289 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.30 | $34,689,559,217 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.30 | $34,689,559,217 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.30 | $34,689,559,217 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.30 | $34,689,559,217 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.31 | $34,689,934,217 | 13 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.