Constellation Energy (CEG)
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$298.96+4.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CEG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CEG — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-14
Other Events On July 14, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation (the Company) learned the results of the PJM capacity auction for the 2028-2029 planning year. Each of the Company's power plants located in the PJM market cleared in the auction. Capacity revenues for nuclear units are included in the gross receipts calculation for the Production Tax Credit. The auction results take effect June 1, 2028. The table below lists the Company's cleared capacity volumes for the 2028-2029 capacity aucti…
Why it matters: Good integration can increase income and improve market position. It is important for growth.
Supportive ifOperational income goes up a lot. This shows Calpine is integrating well.
Worry ifIf operational income does not grow or falls, it shows integration problems.
Why it matters: If approved, these renewals will let operations continue until 2049. This helps long-term revenue.
Supportive ifNRC approves the license renewals for Ginna and Nine Mile Point Unit 1.
Worry ifNRC denies the license renewals. They may also delay the decision beyond expected timelines.
Why it matters: Updates on this project show progress in renewable energy. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifUpdates show the Pastoria Solar Project is running. It is making power as expected.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems with the Pastoria Solar Project.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong earnings growth and good work with Calpine.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted Operating Earnings were at or above $2.74 per share.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted Operating Earnings were below $2.74 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$181 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $472 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,131 loss on $10,000 · 41.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval is key for restarting and meeting the PPA with Microsoft.
Supportive ifNRC grants approval for the restart of the Crane Clean Energy Center.
Worry ifNRC denies approval or delays the decision beyond mid-2026.
Why it matters: New agreements show growth in clean energy revenue and customer demand.
Supportive ifManagement will announce more long-term power purchase agreements. This is beyond the 920 MW already signed.
Worry ifNo new agreements are announced. Current agreements might also be canceled.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance shows strong performance and growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement confirms or raises EPS guidance in the next earnings calls.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance below $11.50 per share.
Why it matters: Successful integration will show that Constellation can manage growth and improve operations. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifManagement says all integration goals will be met by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifIntegration problems are reported. This delays key goals past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A share buyback can show management's confidence. It may help the stock price.
Supportive ifThe stock price rises after the $5 billion share buyback announcement.
Worry ifStock price declines or remains flat despite the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: Clearing the auction is important for future revenue. It affects earnings and operations.
Watch forAll power plants in the PJM market cleared the auction. This secures capacity revenue.
Also watch forSome or all power plants fail to clear the auction, impacting revenue projections.
Why it matters: Closing the sale will meet rules from the Calpine purchase. This could help Constellation's finances.
Supportive ifThe DOJ approves the sale of the Brazos Valley Energy Center for $860 million.
Worry ifThe DOJ denies approval or delays the divestiture beyond the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this sale is key to following rules after the Calpine purchase.
Supportive ifThe sale of the Brazos Valley Energy Center will close by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe sale does not close by the end of 2026 due to regulatory delays.