Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Celcuity, Inc. (CELC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.04-7.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CELC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve earnings to positive by FY 2027 | A primary condition in Celcuity, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= 0.74 USD per share. | Broken | EPS remains negative through FY 2027 | Diluted EPS: $-1.44 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= 0.74 USD per share. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 13, 2026-1.44 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: the launch is progressing on schedule, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution is rated volatile.
The evidence snapshot does not provide a valuation measure or clear market expectations, so whether CELC is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. No fragility gates fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around a loss-making business.
Near term, the August earnings miss and a high estimated chance of another miss make results a key risk. Gedatolisib received FDA approval in July, and launch activities began, with shipments expected late in the third quarter; cash and short-term investments also rose after a convertible-notes offering, with management expecting resources to fund operations through 2027.
The multi-year thesis hinges on commercial execution for gedatolisib and progress in expanded first-line trials. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add risk, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CELC remains a high-risk, loss-making business with a meaningful product milestone but limited evidence yet of durable financial progress. The thesis depends on launch execution, trial progress, and liquidity management. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Finance operations through 2027 with cash and debt |
| The company raised $500 million to fund operations through 2027. |
| Improving |
| Cash and debt run out before end of 2027 |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We expect that our current cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments will finance our operations at least into 2029.” “We expect cash, cash equivalents, investments and drawdowns on our debt facility to finance our operations through 2027.” Net income was $-78.864 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Launch gedatolisib commercially in Q3 2026 | Celcuity plans to launch gedatolisib in Q3 2026. | Recovered | Launch delayed beyond Q3 2026 | FDA approval 2026-07-14 vs Q3 2026 target FDA approved REVTORPYK on July 14, 2026; company plans late Q3 2026 shipments. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We are on track to begin shipping REVTORPYK late in the third quarter of 2026, and we look forward to making this important therapy available to patients with locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer.”” “Shipments of REVTORPYK are expected to begin late in the third quarter of 2026.” Operating income was $-66.118 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Announce and execute share buyback program | They also announced a share buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program canceled or not executed | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.50 → $-2.72 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.50 | $392,545,591 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.50 | $392,545,591 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.50 | $392,545,591 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.50 | $392,545,591 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.50 | $392,545,591 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.50 | $392,545,591 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.96 | $393,210,100 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.96 | $393,210,100 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.96 | $393,210,100 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.96 | $393,210,100 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.50 | $392,372,864 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.51 | $386,759,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.47 | $371,350,727 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.66 | $357,321,500 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.17 | $329,777,455 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.15 | $329,777,455 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.15 | $329,777,455 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.15 | $329,777,455 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.15 | $329,777,455 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.35 | $325,595,636 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.40 | $322,413,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.40 | $322,413,818 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.47 | $317,929,333 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.47 | $317,929,342 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.47 | $317,929,342 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.47 | $317,929,342 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.47 | $317,929,342 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.47 | $317,933,092 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.47 | $317,933,092 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.47 | $317,933,092 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.47 | $317,933,092 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.47 | $317,933,092 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.47 | $317,933,092 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.47 | $317,933,092 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.72 | $299,699,758 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.