Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
Central Garden & Pet Company (Class A) (CENTA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.08-1.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.32 → 3.32 EPS · FY ending Sep 27, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CENTA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
share buybacks and CAPEX near $55M | Profit per share is near $2.7 next quarter. | Intact | CAPEX falls below $50M or buybacks stop next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 23, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CENTA is a steady operating business with a mild favorable tilt, rather than a turnaround or high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent financial performance is in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality is neutral and confidence in the overall read is medium.
The valuation evidence describes CENTA as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in view and low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not suggest that market expectations are unusually demanding.
Near term, management’s fiscal 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance of $2.70 or better remains on track, with reported quarterly EPS improving from $0.11 to $1.28. Capital spending is broadly aligned with the stated annual range, though its status is mixed, and the planned TRIXIE acquisition is still pending. Near-term earnings risk is rated quiet, but a guidance cut or weaker employment conditions could pressure results and sentiment.
The multi-year view hinges on management sustaining earnings progress and completing the planned acquisition of about 80% of TRIXIE, expected in the first half of fiscal 2027. A guidance cut or continued weakening in jobs data would be unfavorable, while strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CENTA’s thesis rests on steady execution, continued earnings progress, and successful expansion in Europe, balanced against cyclical demand risks. The current evidence is mildly favorable, but acquisition delivery and the next guidance update remain important checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share is near $2.7 next quarter. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $2.5 next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $1.45 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.7 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Aug 6, 20261.45 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
net sales growth near 8% YoY | A primary condition in Central Garden & Pet Company (Class A)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next 4 quarters | Revenue growth: -8.17% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-8.174621 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio below 13 | A supporting condition in Central Garden & Pet Company (Class A)'s published investment case. The stated target is <=13 PE TTM. | Intact | PE ratio rises above 17.5 next 4 quarters | P/E (TTM): 14.07x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202614.0678 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.32 → $3.32 · observed estimates
$3.19B → $3.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.32 | $3,192,922,100 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.