Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.07-8.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.08 → 11.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CENX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross profit near $118.8M in Q1 2026 | Gross profit doubled from $57.3M to $118.8M. | Improving | gross profit falls below $57.3 million | Gross profit: $227.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $118.8 million in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026227,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical materials business with a growth component from expanding production capacity. The long-term thesis is intact, and the latest signal has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but earnings quality remains fragile.
The valuation evidence describes CENX as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, suggesting market expectations are below the model’s reference point. The low fragility tier indicates that weak execution quality is not joined by the full combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, shipments and net sales rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026 as the Mt. Holly expansion and restart contributed to growth. Adjusted EBITDA also increased through 2026-Q2, while management remains on track with capacity and efficiency priorities. However, consecutive earnings misses, a recent financial-statement non-reliance event, and a 51% estimated miss probability leave execution risk elevated.
The next earnings call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery on production and efficiency priorities would support the multi-year thesis. Sector signals also matter, since stronger results and guidance from AA and KALU could sustain the materials tailwind, while misses or weaker guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CENX combines improving operating results and capacity growth with fragile earnings quality and meaningful near-term uncertainty. The thesis depends on execution holding up and the sector backdrop remaining supportive. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income surged from $42.8M to $374M, showing strong cost control. |
| Improving |
| operating income falls below $42.8 million |
Operating income: $211.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $374 million in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026211,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
No major delays from legal challenges to Oklahoma smelter | A supporting condition in Century Aluminum Company's published investment case. The stated target is No significant regulatory delays or injunctions through 2026. | Intact | Legal rulings cause smelter construction or operation delays | 0% delays vs 0% target News confirms smelter progress and FID target for year-end 2026; no regulatory trip conditions met. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near $649M in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Century Aluminum Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $649.2 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | quarterly revenue falls below $633.9 million | Revenue: $752.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $649.2 million in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026752,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Business Highlights • Net sales of $649.2 million increased sequentially • Achieved adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century of $231.4 million • Received insurance proceeds totaling $83 million to date related to Iceland equipment failure • Initiated expansion of last 90 pots at Mt.” “Century's liquidity position at December 31, 2025, comprised of cash and cash equivalents of $134.2 million and $283.8 million in combined borrowing availability, was $418.0 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.90 → $11.11 · observed estimates
$3.97B → $4.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.90 | $3,971,066,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.90 | $3,971,066,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.90 | $3,971,066,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.90 | $3,971,066,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.90 | $3,971,066,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.90 | $3,971,066,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.90 | $3,971,066,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.90 | $3,971,066,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.00 | $4,110,066,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.00 | $4,110,066,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.00 | $4,110,066,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $16.00 | $4,143,400,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.08 | $4,094,295,310 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.08 | $4,094,295,310 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.79 | $3,860,950,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.28 | $4,081,476,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.28 | $4,081,476,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.28 | $4,081,476,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.28 | $4,081,476,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.28 | $4,081,476,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.28 | $4,081,476,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.28 | $4,114,436,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.88 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.08 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.08 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.08 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.08 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.08 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.08 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.08 | $4,091,636,248 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.08 | $4,134,636,248 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.08 | $4,134,593,288 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.08 | $4,134,593,288 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.08 | $4,132,789,912 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.08 | $4,132,789,912 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.08 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.08 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.08 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.08 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.11 | $4,115,149,913 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.