Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.07-8.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CENX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 45.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CENX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026 , Century Aluminum Company (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company will hold a follow-up conference call on Thursday, November 5, 2026 , at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The earnings call will be webcast live on the Company’s website, located…
Why it matters: Line 2 returned to near full production in Q2. Full output would restore more aluminum shipments after the equipment failure.
Supportive ifCentury says Grundartangi Line 2 is at 100% production. Shipments topped Q2's 130,632 tonnes.
Worry ifCentury reports Line 2 below full production, a new outage, or shipments at or below 130,632 tonnes.
Why it matters: The company received a $94.3 million 45X refund in July. More refunds and cash above debt would support its funding position.
Supportive ifCentury reports another 45X refund and cash that remains above total debt.
Worry ifCentury reports no further 45X refund and cash below total debt.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $640 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,431 loss on $10,000 · 54.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.