Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.78-1.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CENX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 38.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CENX — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026 , Century Aluminum Company (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company will hold a follow-up conference call on Thursday, August 6, 2026 , at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The earnings call will be webcast live on the Company’s website, located at www.ce…
Why it matters: Restarting production at Mt. Holly is important. It will help increase aluminum output and revenue.
Supportive ifProduction at Mt. Holly resumes, contributing over 50,000MT of aluminum by the end of Q2.
Worry ifProduction at Mt. Holly remains idle beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Aluminum prices affect revenue and profit. Higher prices could help support growth.
Supportive ifAluminum prices increase by more than 5% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifAluminum prices decline by more than 5% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins would show good cost management and pricing.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves compared to Q1's $118.8 million.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines or remains flat.
Why it matters: Higher raw material costs can hurt profit margins and profits.
Worry ifRaw material prices increase by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRaw material prices are stable or going down.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$234 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $674 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,965 loss on $10,000 · 39.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More shipments would show recovery from equipment problems. It would also show better efficiency.
Supportive ifAluminum shipments for Q2 2026 are over 130,000 tonnes. This shows better production.
Worry ifShipments are below 130,000 tonnes. This suggests ongoing problems in operations.
Why it matters: Falling net income may mean lower profits and problems in operations.
Worry ifNet income reported below $249 million.
Less concerning ifNet income reported above $257 million.
Why it matters: Higher raw material prices may hurt profits and affect how investors feel.
Worry ifRaw material prices were much higher than in past quarters.
Less concerning ifRaw material prices are stable or lower than in past quarters.
Why it matters: Net income above this level shows strong financial recovery and good cost control.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $50 million, showing financial strength.
Worry ifNet income is below $50 million. This shows ongoing financial struggles.
Why it matters: A drop in cash could mean liquidity problems. This can hurt operations and growth.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents were below $300 million.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents were above $350 million.
Why it matters: The redevelopment can create jobs and help the local economy. It shows Century cares about the community.
Supportive ifNew jobs at the Hawesville site exceed 500 positions.
Worry ifNo new jobs reported or delays in redevelopment plans.
Why it matters: If it drops below this range, it may show weaker performance and metal price problems.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $325 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was more than $345 million.
Why it matters: Steady shipment levels show good production growth and stable demand.
Supportive ifAluminum shipments were over 130,000 tonnes in Q3.
Worry ifAluminum shipments fall below 130,000 tonnes in Q3.
Why it matters: PPI changes can affect aluminum prices. This impacts revenue and profit margins.
Watch forPPI data shows a big increase. This leads to higher aluminum prices.
Also watch forPPI data shows a big decrease. This leads to lower aluminum prices.