Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cerus Corp. (CERS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.13-11.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CERS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Announce and execute share buyback program | The company plans a share buyback program. | Intact | No buyback program announced or executed by end of 2026 | Buyback announced Jun 2026 vs FY26 target Cerus announced a share buyback program in June 2026, meeting the qualitative target for capital allocation execution. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap growth business with an elevated-risk profile, not yet a profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has fallen to low despite recent financial performance holding up in the top half of its industry.
Valuation is close to peers, with the model showing a 1.06 premium, and its divergence driver is aligned. No fragility gates are active, but the evidence does not show what specific growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, product revenue is growing in line with management’s plan: it rose 10% year over year in 2026-Q2, and management raised its 2026 product revenue guidance. IFC sales are also growing strongly, while the INT200 regulatory submission is progressing with an FDA decision expected in early 2027. The business remains loss-making, and a reversal of the recent guidance increase or weaker economic data could undermine confidence.
The multi-year view depends on continued product revenue growth, further IFC sales gains, and progress toward new product approvals. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility; weaker jobs data could add pressure, while strong results from healthcare peers may support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CERS has a growth-led thesis with evidence of execution, but profitability, regulatory progress, and guidance credibility remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management focuses on better cash flow from operations. |
| Improving |
| Cash flow falls below -$3.05M |
Cash from operations: $-2.661M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow improves above -$3.05M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026-2,661,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income improves toward positive | A primary condition in Cerus Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Net income improves beyond -$1.64M. | Intact | Net income worsens below -$2.18M | Net income: $-550,000 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income improves beyond -$1.64M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 2026-550,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $229 million | Cerus aims to grow revenue to about $229 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $203 million in FY26 | Revenue: $57.714M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$229 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 202657,714,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.00 → $-0.01 · observed estimates
$0.26B → $0.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.00 | $259,833,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.00 | $259,833,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.00 | $259,833,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.00 | $259,833,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.00 | $274,166,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.00 | $259,833,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.00 | $259,833,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.00 | $259,833,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.03 | $263,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.03 | $263,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.03 | $263,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.00 | $263,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.00 | $263,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $263,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.00 | $268,366,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.01 | $273,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.01 | $277,366,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.01 | $277,366,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.01 | $277,366,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.01 | $277,025,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.01 | $276,550,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.01 | $276,550,000 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.