CF Industries (CF)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.35-3.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CF
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $133 CF trades at 10× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $157 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $115–$130. Note: our $157 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($115–$130). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $124.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $192.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $192.02 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $129.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$115.00 – $130.00 (median $124.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $215.08 |
| 12.2 |
| 18.06 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $322.09 | 26.0 | 12.41 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $179.61 | 15.0 | 11.97 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $75.01 | 1.5 | 50.29 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $96.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $129.58 | 10.1 | 12.80 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $237.83 | 17.9 | 13.28 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $224.03 | 26.0 | 8.63 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $160.17 | 15.0 | 10.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $63.17 | 1.5 | 42.35 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $82.82 | 10.1 | 8.18 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $175.87 | 26.0 | 6.78 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $142.84 | 15.0 | 9.52 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $56.33 | 1.5 | 37.77 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $61.45 | 10.1 | 6.07 | Analyst | high |