CF Industries (CF)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$114.93+1.53%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $114.93. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $115 CF trades at 10.0× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $153 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $115–$145. Note: our $153 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($115–$145). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $126.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $99.71 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $101.76 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $117.84 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$115.00 – $145.00 (median $126.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $263.44 |
| 14.3 |
| 19.07 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $336.68 | 32.1 | 10.49 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $271.50 | 23.5 | 11.55 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $100.54 | 2.1 | 47.94 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $87.36 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $114.17 | 9.9 | 11.55 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $289.64 | 23.5 | 12.32 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $184.88 | 32.1 | 5.76 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $248.85 | 23.5 | 10.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $97.31 | 2.1 | 46.40 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $104.64 | 9.9 | 10.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $123.97 | 32.1 | 3.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $234.80 | 23.5 | 9.99 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $95.22 | 2.1 | 45.41 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $98.74 | 9.9 | 9.99 | Analyst | high |