CF Industries (CF)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.35-3.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. will host a conference call discussing its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, at which the presentation attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 will be used. The information set forth herein, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing…
Why it matters: Natural gas prices affect CF's production costs and how much money it makes.
Worry ifNatural gas prices remain above $5 per MMBtu for two consecutive months.
Less concerning ifNatural gas prices drop below $4 per MMBtu for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: Nitrogen prices impact CF's revenue. A sustained increase would support higher earnings.
Supportive ifGlobal nitrogen prices are rising above $600 per ton for two months in a row.
Worry ifNitrogen prices are dropping below $500 per ton for two months in a row.
Why it matters: Progress on the Blue Point joint venture is key to CF's low-carbon ammonia strategy and future growth.
Supportive ifThey shared important news about the Blue Point joint venture. They finished getting the equipment.
Worry ifFurther delays or cost overruns reported in the Blue Point joint venture.
Why it matters: This restoration will change production. It will also impact future earnings.
Watch forThe Yazoo City Complex will start operations again by early 2027.
Also watch forFurther delays in the restoration timeline beyond mid-2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$179 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $384 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,575 loss on $10,000 · 25.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in supply can impact CF's pricing power and market share.
Watch forMiddle East nitrogen production goes back to levels before the conflict.
Also watch forMiddle East production stays low or goes down more.
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX guidance shows CF's focus on growth and steady investment.
Supportive ifManagement says CAPEX guidance stays at about $1.3 billion for 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts CAPEX guidance from the $1.3 billion target.
Why it matters: Nitrogen prices impact CF's revenue. A drop could signal weakening demand or oversupply.
Worry ifNitrogen prices may stabilize or drop a lot because of more supply from the Middle East.
Less concerning ifNitrogen prices stay high or rise due to ongoing supply issues.
Why it matters: Hitting capital spending goals shows CF is handling growth and costs well.
Supportive ifCapital spending is at or below $1.3 billion for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is much higher than $1.3 billion.
Why it matters: Higher natural gas prices can raise costs. This may affect how much money CF Industries makes.
Worry ifAverage natural gas cost in Q2 2026 is above $5.00 per MMBtu. This shows costs are rising.
Less concerning ifAverage natural gas cost in Q2 2026 is below $4.00 per MMBtu. This suggests costs are stable.
Why it matters: Changes in nitrogen supply and demand impact CF's prices. They also affect sales volumes.
Watch forGlobal nitrogen supply and demand tighten more, which leads to higher prices.
Also watch forWhen global nitrogen supply and demand go up, prices go down.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks can show management's trust in cash flow and spending.
Supportive ifManagement plans to increase share buybacks. They will go beyond the $1.7 billion limit.
Worry ifManagement stops or cuts the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Natural gas prices impact CF's production costs and profits.
Worry ifNatural gas prices rise above $4.57 per MMBtu, increasing cost pressures.
Less concerning ifNatural gas prices stay stable or drop below $4.57 per MMBtu, reducing costs.
Why it matters: Updates on the Blue Point One joint venture will show if CF Industries is on track with its low-carbon ammonia goals.
Supportive ifManagement says construction is on time and within budget.
Worry ifConstruction updates show delays or costs are higher than planned.
Why it matters: Updates on the Blue Point project show progress in low-carbon ammonia production. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifWatch for news about construction milestones or the completion of the Blue Point project.
Worry ifWatch for delays or setbacks in construction that push timelines back or raise costs.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to giving money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifWatch for news on more share buybacks or updates on total shares bought back.
Worry ifA pause or cut in share repurchase activity can happen due to cash flow issues or changing plans.