CF Industries (CF)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$111.68-4.39%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
CF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. will host a conference call discussing its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, at which the presentation attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 will be used. The information set forth herein, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing…
Why it matters: CF said prices fell back to pre-conflict levels by June. A fresh rise would support earnings, while further falls could weaken them.
Watch forThe November 4 update says nitrogen prices rose from June levels. Supply stays tight into 2027.
Also watch forThe update says nitrogen prices fell below June levels or supply limits eased.
Why it matters: CF returned cash through buybacks and raised its dividend. Continued payouts would show that this plan remains active.
Supportive ifCF reports more share repurchases or keeps its quarterly dividend at $0.60 per share or higher.
Worry ifCF pauses share repurchases or cuts its quarterly dividend below $0.60 per share.
Why it matters: CF ran at 98% of available capacity in the first half. But its output plan includes the Yazoo City outage.
Watch forCF reports full-year 2026 ammonia production of about 9.5 million tons or more.
Also watch forCF reports full-year production below 9.5 million tons. It cites outages or lower plant use.
Why it matters: The outage cut product supply and weighed on sales volumes. A timely restart would restore some lost output.
Supportive ifCF says Yazoo City will resume output of ammonia and other listed products by June 30, 2027.
Worry ifCF delays the restart beyond June 2027 or reports that the outage continues.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,575 loss on $10,000 · 25.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Construction began after permits arrived. Delays or higher costs could raise the burden of this large project.
Watch forCF reports construction progress against its plan and keeps 2026 joint venture capital spending near $600 million.
Also watch forCF reports a construction delay, a higher 2026 joint venture spend, or a change to the project plan.