Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CF Industries (CF)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$118.57+6.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.24 → 11.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPEX near $1.3 billion | It plans about $1.3 billion in capital spending for 2026. | Broken | CAPEX falls below $950 million or above $1.5 billion in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $271M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.3 billion CAPEX. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026271,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CF is a cyclical materials business with a multi-year thesis tied to strong recent performance and a supportive sector backdrop. The thesis is intact and has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality and management evidence are neutral and risk is elevated.
CF is described as cheap versus peers, while the market’s expectations are tagged as justified and pricing fragility is low. The valuation evidence has medium confidence, so the gap between expectations and business results is not firmly established.
Near term, the outlook has a quiet risk flag, but the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry and missed its most recent quarter. Management is advancing the Blue Point low-carbon ammonia joint venture and keeping capital spending aligned with stated plans; construction began in August 2026. Share repurchases and a higher quarterly dividend show ongoing capital returns, while the broader multi-year case still depends on execution.
The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor: a cut could lead analysts to reduce estimates. Over the multi-year view, progress on Blue Point and disciplined project spending matter, while sector signals from CTVA, MOS, and SMG could strengthen or weaken the materials tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, with strong recent performance and a supportive sector backdrop balanced by a recent earnings miss, elevated industry risk, and project execution needs. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected above $2 billion. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow falls below $1.8 billion next year |
Free cash flow: $607M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2 billion free cash flow. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026607,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 37.6% | A primary condition in CF Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=37.6% gross margin. | Intact | gross margin falls below 35% next year | Gross margin: 51.53% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=37.6% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202651.530153 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 19% YoY | A primary condition in CF Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below ~10% next year | Revenue growth: 17.57% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 202617.566138 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.06 → $11.65 · observed estimates
$7.35B → $7.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.06 | $7,347,645,460 | 8 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.80 | $7,324,993,610 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.80 | $7,324,993,610 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.80 | $7,324,995,460 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.80 | $7,324,995,460 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.80 | $7,324,995,460 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.34 | $7,327,645,460 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.34 | $7,327,645,460 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.34 | $7,327,645,460 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.34 | $7,327,645,460 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.34 | $7,327,645,460 | 7 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.43 | $7,301,879,060 | 8 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.43 | $7,301,879,060 | 8 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.43 | $7,301,879,060 | 8 / 20 |
| 2026-08-11 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.34 | $7,280,216,280 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.99 | $7,278,667,044 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.57 | $7,168,086,511 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.59 | $7,174,139,142 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.59 | $7,174,139,142 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.59 | $7,174,139,142 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.56 | $7,172,924,650 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.56 | $7,172,924,650 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.56 | $7,172,924,650 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.56 | $7,172,924,650 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.56 | $7,172,924,650 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.52 | $7,178,402,300 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.52 | $7,178,402,300 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.52 | $7,178,402,300 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.52 | $7,178,402,300 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.52 | $7,178,402,300 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.52 | $7,178,402,300 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.51 | $7,174,202,428 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.51 | $7,174,202,428 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.51 | $7,174,202,428 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.51 | $7,174,202,428 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.51 | $7,174,202,428 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.51 | $7,174,202,428 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.60 | $7,202,155,512 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.60 | $7,202,155,512 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.84 | $7,267,091,317 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.84 | $7,267,091,317 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.84 | $7,267,091,317 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.84 | $7,267,091,317 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.84 | $7,267,091,317 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.84 | $7,267,091,317 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.84 | $7,267,091,317 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.84 | $7,267,097,262 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.84 | $7,267,097,262 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.84 | $7,267,097,262 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.89 | $7,294,608,441 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.89 | $7,294,618,964 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.89 | $7,294,618,964 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.94 | $7,298,751,244 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.94 | $7,298,751,244 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.94 | $7,298,751,244 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.94 | $7,298,751,244 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.24 | $7,360,374,011 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.24 | $7,360,374,011 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.24 | $7,360,374,011 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.24 | $7,360,374,011 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.24 | $7,360,374,011 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.24 | $7,360,374,011 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.24 | $7,360,374,011 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.23 | $7,354,818,456 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.26 | $7,356,953,750 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.26 | $7,356,953,750 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.26 | $7,356,953,750 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.26 | $7,356,953,750 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.26 | $7,356,953,750 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.26 | $7,356,953,750 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.26 | $7,356,953,750 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.27 | $7,360,081,528 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.27 | $7,360,081,528 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.27 | $7,360,081,528 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.27 | $7,360,081,528 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.28 | $7,360,081,528 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.28 | $7,360,081,528 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.28 | $7,360,081,528 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.35 | $7,377,003,718 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.38 | $7,384,803,328 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.38 | $7,384,803,328 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.43 | $7,383,391,356 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.43 | $7,383,391,356 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.43 | $7,383,391,356 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.43 | $7,383,391,356 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.66 | $7,429,729,967 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.66 | $7,429,729,967 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.66 | $7,429,729,967 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.66 | $7,429,729,967 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.66 | $7,429,729,967 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.66 | $7,429,729,967 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.66 | $7,429,739,906 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.65 | $7,425,239,906 | 10 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.