CF Industries (CF)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.35-3.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth near 19% YoY: rev +10.0% vs 10.0% target.
CF Industries makes fertilizer and beats earnings with 19% revenue growth. It plans about $1.3 billion in capital spending for 2026. Free cash flow is expected above $2 billion. The stock trades cheap with a PE of 9.95 and a free cash flow yield of 9%.
Falling revenue growth and earnings estimates show demand risks. Profit margins could shrink below the 37.6% guided level. Capital spending may not generate expected returns. The stock faces sector headwinds and fragile quality signals.
The market prices in about -1% revenue growth and a 25% discount to our fair value near $154. Our fair value is 20% above the Street median. We see value but also elevated risk given sector headwinds and fragile quality.
Breaks if: CAPEX falls below $950 million or above $1.5 billion in 2026
CF Industries aims to maintain its capital expenditures guidance for the year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth through strategic projects like the Blue Point low-carbon ammonia joint venture. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent earnings misses and mixed signals from management.
The market currently prices CF as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully anticipate future performance. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, suggesting that current conditions are stable.
Management's recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a risk of earnings misses, given the company's history in a high-miss-rate industry. The focus on disciplined capital expenditures and returning capital to shareholders is likely to support fundamentals in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on key projects, particularly the Blue Point joint venture, and external factors such as inflation trends and sector performance from peers like CTVA, MOS, and SMG. Any changes in guidance could significantly impact investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The groundbreaking of the Blue Point low-carbon ammonia plant supports growth. However, the latest earnings miss raises concerns about capital allocation.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $1.8 billion next year
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 35% next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~10% next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, CF's performance will depend on its project execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.