Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Capitol Federal Savings Bank (CFFN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.49-3.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.88 → 0.86 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CFFN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand commercial loan growth by 20% for fiscal year | Capitol Federal Savings Bank is growing commercial loans by 20% this fiscal year. | Intact | commercial loan growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional financial company with a growth and capital-return thesis, not a clear turnaround story. The multi-year view is intact, though recent momentum weakened and earnings quality remains fragile.
CFFN is characterized as cheap versus peers, with only a small gap between expectations and the evidence snapshot’s modeled expectations. The valuation is marked justified, and fragility is low because the evidence points to weak execution quality rather than a broader stack of valuation and business risks.
Near term, the October earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses are risks, although the estimated miss risk is described as low. Over the multi-year view, commercial loans grew 22.2% in fiscal 2026, ahead of management’s roughly 20% forecast, while product and technology execution has limited evidence of customer adoption or revenue impact.
The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor, since a cut would be a meaningful negative. Rate changes and continued earnings strength across sector bellwethers are also relevant, while the longer-term case depends on sustaining commercial loan growth and showing clearer results from product and service expansion.
The 1-3 year thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and delivered commercial loan growth, but weakened momentum and fragile earnings quality make execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The bank keeps a steady dividend payout of $0.085 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.08 in any quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share remains >= $0.085 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.085 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase operating income to at least $25 million in Q2 2026 | Operating income rose to $25.08 million in Q2 2026 from $19.25 million a year ago. | Intact | operating income falls below $22 million in Q2 FY2026 | Operating income: $22.574M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$25.08 million operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202622,574,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.88 → $0.86 · observed estimates
$0.26B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $0.88 | $263,680,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.88 | $263,680,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.88 | $263,680,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.88 | $263,680,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.88 | $263,680,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.88 | $263,680,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.88 | $263,680,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.88 | $263,680,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.84 | $261,528,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.85 | $265,348,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.86 | $272,473,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.86 | $272,473,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.86 | $272,473,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.86 | $272,473,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.86 | $272,473,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.86 | $272,473,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.