Capitol Federal Savings Bank (CFFN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.87+0.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CFFN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -38.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CFFN — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-29
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE The Company's press release dated July 28, 2026 announcing a quarterly cash dividend of $0.085 per share on outstanding Company common stock payable on August 21, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 7, 2026, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows that management is expanding the commercial loan portfolio. This is important for earnings.
Supportive ifCommercial loan growth is over 20% year over year. This confirms management's target.
Worry ifCommercial loan growth is under 20% year over year. This shows slower expansion.
Why it matters: Going above this level shows strong performance and good execution of plans.
Supportive ifQuarterly net income exceeds $23 million in the next earnings report.
Worry ifNet income drops below $20 million, which raises worries about how well the company runs.
Why it matters: Maintaining this dividend shows the bank's commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifThe company pays the dividend as planned on August 21, 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payment. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows that management's plans are working.
Supportive ifCommercial loan growth of 20% or more for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifCommercial loan growth falls below 15% for fiscal year 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $216 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,059 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A stable or rising net interest margin helps profits. It shows good management of interest income.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is above 2.30%. This shows strong management of interest income.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 2.30%. This signals possible issues with interest income.
Why it matters: This news shows a strong commitment to giving value back to shareholders.
Watch forAnnouncement of a cash dividend of $0.085 per share on August 21, 2026.
Also watch forNo news on dividends or a cut in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows that management is doing a good job.
Supportive ifOperating income went up from $29.2 million in 2026-Q3.
Worry ifOperating income drops or stays below $29.2 million.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost control and operations. It shows how well the bank makes money compared to its costs.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio drops below 52% in the earnings report for Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe efficiency ratio remains above 53% in the earnings report for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A steady or rising net interest margin shows that the company manages its money well.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is above 2.30% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 2.20%. This suggests issues in managing interest income.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows that the company is doing well with its plans.
Supportive ifOperating income grows above $29 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $29 million.
Why it matters: Regular dividends show strong financial health. They also show a promise to stockholders.
Watch forThe company pays a dividend of $0.085 per share as planned.
Also watch forThe company reduces or skips the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Changes in PPI can affect interest rates and the economy, which impacts banks.
Watch forPPI is rising, which shows inflation is increasing.
Also watch forPPI is falling, which shows deflation is happening.