Carlyle Group (CG)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04

$42.75+4.52%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carlyle Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.09 → 4.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CG yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Distributable Earnings per share of $6.00+	Carlyle aims to grow distributable earnings to $6.00 per share by 2028.	Improving	Distributable Earnings per share falls below $3.00 by FY28	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.35	It maintains a stable dividend of $0.35 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.35 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend The Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share to holders of record at the close of business on August 17, 2026 , payable on August 26, 2026 .” “Dividend The Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share to holders of record at the close of business on May 18, 2026 , payable on May 28, 2026 .” Delivery assessment Nov 3, 2026
Return to positive EPS	A primary condition in Carlyle Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.87 USD per share.	Broken	EPS remains negative or below $0.50 in FY25	Diluted EPS: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.87 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue from depressed levels	A primary condition in Carlyle Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27	Revenue: $1.123B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20261,123,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.99

$5.09 → $4.99 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.89B

$4.97B → $4.89B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-25	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-26	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-27	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-28	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-29	$5.09	$4,973,800,050	17 / 7
2026-07-30	$5.11	$5,138,816,402	9 / 5
2026-07-31	$5.10	$4,966,759,530	17 / 7
2026-08-01	$5.10	$4,966,759,530	17 / 7
2026-08-02	$5.10	$4,966,759,530	17 / 7
2026-08-03	$5.11	$5,132,566,402	9 / 6
2026-08-04	$5.11	$5,132,566,402	9 / 6
2026-08-05	$5.11	$5,132,566,402	9 / 6
2026-08-06	$5.11	$5,132,566,402	9 / 6
2026-08-07	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.11	$4,988,781,410	17 / 6
2026-08-10	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-11	$5.11	$4,988,781,410	17 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-13	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-14	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-16	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-17	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-18	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-19	$5.10	$5,084,435,910	9 / 5
2026-08-20	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-21	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-22	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-23	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-24	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-25	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-26	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-27	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-28	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-30	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-08-31	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-01	$5.14	$5,083,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-02	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-03	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-04	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-05	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-06	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-07	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-08	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-09	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-10	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-11	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-12	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-13	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-14	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-15	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-16	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-17	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-18	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-19	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-20	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-21	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-22	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-23	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-24	$5.14	$5,066,532,341	9 / 5
2026-09-25	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 5
2026-09-26	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-09-27	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-09-28	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-09-29	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-09-30	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.14	$5,054,569,107	9 / 7
2026-10-03	$5.12	$5,036,062,824	10 / 7
2026-10-04	$5.12	$5,036,062,824	10 / 7
2026-10-05	$5.09	$5,036,062,824	10 / 7
2026-10-06	$5.08	$4,965,699,188	10 / 7
2026-10-07	$5.08	$4,964,445,722	10 / 7
2026-10-08	$5.07	$4,964,445,722	10 / 7
2026-10-09	$5.07	$4,964,445,722	10 / 7
2026-10-10	$5.07	$4,964,445,722	10 / 7
2026-10-11	$5.07	$4,962,927,540	10 / 7
2026-10-12	$5.07	$4,962,927,540	10 / 7
2026-10-13	$5.05	$4,941,482,085	10 / 7
2026-10-14	$5.02	$4,895,968,706	10 / 7
2026-10-15	$5.02	$4,895,968,706	10 / 7
2026-10-16	$5.03	$4,908,714,698	10 / 7
2026-10-17	$5.03	$4,908,714,698	10 / 7
2026-10-18	$5.03	$4,908,714,698	10 / 7
2026-10-19	$5.02	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-20	$5.02	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-21	$5.02	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-22	$5.02	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-23	$5.01	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-24	$5.01	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-25	$5.01	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-26	$5.01	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-27	$5.01	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-28	$4.99	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-29	$4.99	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-30	$4.99	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-10-31	$4.99	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-11-01	$4.99	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-11-02	$4.99	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-11-03	$4.99	$4,896,896,516	10 / 7
2026-11-04	$4.99	$4,888,623,789	9 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	9	8	1
2026-07-01	9	9	1
2026-08-01	8	9	1
2026-09-01	10	9	1
2026-10-01	10	9	1
2026-11-01	10	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 27 · prior Jul 13

$52.00 → $46.00-11.5%

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Jul 21

$57.00 → $51.00-10.5%

BarclaysOct 8 · prior Aug 6

$64.00 → $53.00-17.2%

$0$35.20$70.40

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Distributable Earnings per share of $6.00+Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend per share at $0.35Dividend per share: $0.35 per share
Return to positive EPSPublished status: Broken
Increase revenue from depressed levelsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carlyle Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financial firm with a recovery-dependent thesis, not a proven steady compounder today. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak, the signal has turned mixed, and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Carlyle Group

The valuation evidence is mixed: CG is tagged as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a sizable premium to peers and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has kept the quarterly dividend steady and has repeatedly stated a goal of at least $6.00 in Distributable Earnings per share by 2028, but progress toward that goal remains incomplete. Recent results are weak: revenue declined from 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2, and the record fee-related earnings and strong fundraising statements have not yet resolved the broader performance gap. Near term, guidance cuts are a key risk, although the stated miss probability is low.

What Carlyle Group hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued progress toward the 2028 earnings goal and on revenue growth across business segments. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while sustained earnings strength from sector peers such as BLK, BX, and KKR could support sector momentum. The effect of rate changes is also a swing factor in the evidence, which says Financials tend to do better when rates stay high.