Carlyle Group (CG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.97-1.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 29.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CG — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-01
General Counsel — Jeffrey W. Ferguson: Jeffrey W. Ferguson is retiring as General Counsel, with Kate Heinzelman appointed as the new General Counsel.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifCarlyle declares a dividend of $0.35 per share in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCarlyle cuts the dividend below $0.35 per share in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Guidance for distributable earnings per share will show if Carlyle is on track for its 2028 target of $6.00+.
Supportive ifCarlyle raises its Q3 estimate for earnings per share to over $1.50.
Worry ifEarnings per share guidance is the same or lowered to under $1.00.
Why it matters: The share buyback plan shows that management believes in the stock's value.
Supportive ifCarlyle shares news about the $2 billion share buyback plan.
Worry ifNo updates or delays on the share repurchase program are reported.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to proving management's growth plan across segments.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported above $1.5 billion.
Worry ifRevenue was below $1.5 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $418 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,080 loss on $10,000 · 40.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good use of capital. It gives investors confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: Kate Heinzelman's new role may change Carlyle's legal and compliance path.
Watch forKate Heinzelman may lead to better legal results or more compliance.
Also watch forLegal problems or compliance issues may come up after the transition.
Why it matters: This target reflects Carlyle's growth strategy and long-term value creation goals.
Supportive ifCarlyle reports DE per share trending towards or above $6.00 in upcoming quarters.
Worry ifCarlyle reports DE per share below $6.00. This shows they face growth challenges.
Why it matters: The new General Counsel may change Carlyle's legal strategy. It could also affect compliance.
Watch forKate Heinzelman puts new legal strategies in place. She also improves compliance measures.
Also watch forThere may be issues with legal rules or plans during the change.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for Carlyle's financial health. It shows good cost control.
Supportive ifQ3 operating income shows a profit. This means recovery from past losses.
Worry ifQ3 operating income is still negative. This points to ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: This result is key to tracking progress toward the $6.00+ target by 2028.
Supportive ifQ3 Distributable Earnings per share exceeds $2.50, showing strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 Distributable Earnings per share is below $2.00. This shows weak performance.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is important. It supports management's positive outlook and plans.
Watch forQ3 revenue grew compared to last year. This shows successful execution.
Also watch forQ3 revenue fell compared to last year. This suggests ongoing challenges.