Carlyle Group (CG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
$39.96-6.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 30.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers
CG — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-01
General Counsel — Jeffrey W. Ferguson: Jeffrey W. Ferguson is retiring as General Counsel, with Kate Heinzelman appointed as the new General Counsel.
Why it matters: Carlyle cited strong fundraising in Q2. More fundraising can support future fee income, while a drop may weaken that growth path.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Carlyle reports that Q3 fundraising topped the same quarter in 2025.
Worry ifQ3 fundraising is below the same quarter in 2025. Or management reports weaker demand from institutional and wealth clients.
Why it matters: Carlyle has kept its quarterly dividend at $0.35. Another payment at that level would confirm this pattern; a cut would break it.
Watch forCarlyle declares a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share for the next payment.
Also watch forCarlyle sets a quarterly dividend below $0.35 per share or suspends the payment.
Why it matters: Carlyle aims for $6.00 or more in distributable earnings per share by 2028. Q3 results can show whether earnings are moving toward that goal.
Supportive ifOn the November 5, 2026 earnings call, Carlyle reports Q3 distributable earnings per share above the prior-year quarter. It reaffirms its $6.00-plus 2028 target.
Worry ifQ3 distributable earnings per share is below the year-earlier quarter. Or Carlyle drops or cuts its $6.00-plus 2028 target.
Why it matters: Record fee-related earnings helped lift Q2 results. A further rise would show that fee income is growing.
Supportive ifThe Q3 earnings release reports fee-related earnings above the record set in Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 fee-related earnings are below Q2 2026, or Carlyle reports a decline from the prior year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $406 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,555 loss on $10,000 · 45.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.