Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cognex (CGNX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$47.50-10.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.01 → 1.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CGNX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit rises to about $191M in Q1 2026 | A supporting condition in Cognex's published investment case. The stated target is >= $191M. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $144M in any quarter | Gross profit: $221.743M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $191M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 2026221,743,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CGNX is a growth-oriented industrial technology business with recent evidence of operating leverage, meaning income has grown faster than revenue. The long-term thesis is intact, and company quality has improved, though earnings quality and management assessments remain neutral.
The valuation model places CGNX at a 1.42 premium to peers, with a small expectations gap of 0.07. The snapshot labels the pricing as justified and fragility as low, but model confidence is low, so the valuation read is uncertain.
Near term, recent results show strong momentum: Q2 revenue grew 17% year over year, while operating income and margins increased from Q1. Management is on track with growth and margin priorities, though a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk and the company has a history of a deep miss.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and margin expansion without a guidance cut. Rate cuts or stabilization among technology sector bellwethers could improve the sector backdrop, while weaker execution would challenge the current view.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CGNX has a strong recent operating trajectory and an intact long-term thesis, but peer-premium valuation and uncertain execution leave meaningful questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose from $26M to $60M in one year. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $26M in any quarter |
Operating income: $100.822M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $60M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 2026100,822,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $290M in Q2 2026 | Cognex grows revenue about 10% a year, backed by strong demand. | Intact | Revenue falls below $268M in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $313.387M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$290M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 2026313,387,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.78 → $1.98 · observed estimates
$1.21B → $1.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.78 | $1,207,428,320 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.78 | $1,207,428,320 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.78 | $1,207,428,320 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.78 | $1,207,428,320 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.78 | $1,207,428,320 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.78 | $1,207,428,320 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.78 | $1,208,296,560 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.78 | $1,208,296,560 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.78 | $1,208,296,560 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.89 | $1,231,659,930 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.00 | $1,246,648,810 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.01 | $1,250,491,810 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.80 | $1,210,792,300 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.01 | $1,252,404,495 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.01 | $1,252,404,495 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.01 | $1,252,404,495 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,055 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.01 | $1,251,842,044 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.01 | $1,251,855,887 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.01 | $1,251,855,887 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.01 | $1,251,855,887 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.01 | $1,251,855,887 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.01 | $1,251,855,887 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.01 | $1,251,855,887 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.01 | $1,251,855,887 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.01 | $1,251,851,555 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.00 | $1,256,983,795 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.00 | $1,256,983,795 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.00 | $1,256,983,795 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.00 | $1,256,983,795 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.00 | $1,256,983,795 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.00 | $1,256,983,795 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.00 | $1,256,983,795 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.01 | $1,258,921,953 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.01 | $1,258,921,953 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.01 | $1,258,931,100 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.01 | $1,258,931,100 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.01 | $1,258,931,100 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.01 | $1,265,510,047 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.01 | $1,265,510,047 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.99 | $1,272,235,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.99 | $1,272,235,834 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.99 | $1,272,235,834 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.99 | $1,272,235,834 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.99 | $1,272,235,834 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.98 | $1,272,230,571 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.98 | $1,272,655,781 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.98 | $1,272,655,781 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.98 | $1,272,550,518 | 12 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.