Cognex (CGNX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.25+2.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CGNX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CGNX — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-05
Other Events On August 5, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.085 per share. The dividend is payable on September 3, 2026, to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 20, 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance would show continued strong demand and growth momentum.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance for Q3 2026 is at least $300 million.
Worry ifRevenue guidance for Q3 2026 falls below $300 million.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows if Cognex is making more money. Strong growth in income means success.
Supportive ifOperating income growth for Q3 exceeds 100% year over year.
Worry ifOperating income growth for Q3 is below 100% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in AI vision product sales shows Cognex's leadership in this market.
Supportive ifSales of AI vision products increase by over 20% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifSales of AI vision products grow less than 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Completing this program shows Cognex's commitment to returning value to shareholders. It can also signal confidence in future cash flows.
Supportive ifCognex completes the $500M share repurchase program.
Worry ifCognex announces a pause or reduction in the share repurchase program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$237 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $444 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,786 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High adoption would prove Cognex's plan works and help revenue grow.
Supportive ifCustomer adoption rates are over 20% for new AI vision products.
Worry ifAdoption rates are below 10% for new AI vision products.
Why it matters: Reaching this target means higher profits and efficient work.
Supportive ifManagement says they will cut costs by $35 to $40 million each year.
Worry ifManagement says they will not meet cost-cutting goals.
Why it matters: More customers using OneVision™ shows it is accepted in the market. Fewer users may mean problems.
Supportive ifMany customers use OneVision™ for AI vision tasks.
Worry ifNo big rise in customer use of OneVision™.
Why it matters: Meeting the cost reduction target helps increase margins and profits.
Supportive ifCognex achieves $35 to $40 million in annualized cost reductions by the end of 2026.
Worry ifCost reductions fall short of the $35 million target by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong demand and growth momentum. It confirms management's focus on revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is confirmed at $300 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is below $300 million.
Why it matters: A margin above 32% shows good efficiency and strong profits. This helps the growth plan.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin in Q3 is over 32%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin in Q3 falls below 32%.
Why it matters: Earnings per share in this range shows strong profit growth. It shows management is doing well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 is reported between $0.50 and $0.54.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 is below $0.50.
Why it matters: More use of OneVision™ shows strong demand for AI solutions. This helps future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says OneVision™ user numbers are going up a lot.
Worry ifAdoption rates for OneVision™ are not growing or are going down.