Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
City Holding Company (CHCO)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$142.05-1.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.66 → 9.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain tangible equity ratio near 9.8% | It keeps strong capital with a tangible equity ratio near 9.8%. | Intact | tangible equity ratio falls below 9.8% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a steady regional banking business with a durable-premium profile, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but remains on watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
CHCO is tagged as stretched and carries a sizable premium versus peers, though the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence points to a durable premium and an expectations gap, but does not show that the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions is priced in.
In the near term, third-quarter loan growth and nonperforming assets at 0.24% support the stated goal of growing loans while maintaining credit quality. Capital delivery is mixed: the CET I ratio is above the stated well-capitalized threshold, while the tangible equity ratio has declined; the board also raised the quarterly dividend, and the recent earnings event was positive. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but guidance cuts and recent peer misses remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued loan growth without weaker credit quality, alongside stronger financial performance relative to the industry cohort. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable under the supplied scenarios, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, CHCO has evidence of sound credit quality, loan growth, and dividend progress, but its peer valuation premium and mixed performance make execution the key test. The thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company pays consistent dividends around $0.87 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend falls below $0.87 per share |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS grows to at least $9.05 in FY26 | City Holding Company grows earnings steadily with about $9.05 EPS in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $9.05 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.43 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9.05 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20262.43 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.48 → $9.72 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.48 | $333,099,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.46 | $333,807,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.46 | $333,807,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.46 | $334,430,750 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.46 | $333,807,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.58 | $336,496,500 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.58 | $336,496,500 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.58 | $336,496,500 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.58 | $336,496,500 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.58 | $336,496,500 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.58 | $336,496,500 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.63 | $338,393,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.58 | $336,562,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.64 | $338,732,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.66 | $339,124,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.71 | $340,195,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.71 | $340,195,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.71 | $340,195,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.71 | $340,195,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.71 | $340,195,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.71 | $340,195,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.71 | $340,195,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.72 | $340,468,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $9.72 | $340,468,333 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.