City Holding Company (CHCO)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$145.57+0.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CHCO — CFO transition
Dated 2026-05-28
Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — David L. Bumgarner: David L. Bumgarner was promoted to Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes from the FOMC can impact net interest income and loan demand.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Also watch forFOMC lowers interest rates or keeps them unchanged.
Why it matters: Negative loan growth would indicate challenges in attracting new loans and could hurt earnings.
Worry ifTotal loans decrease more than 0.5% from $4.50 billion in Q1.
Less concerning ifTotal loans increase or remain stable in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher credit losses signal potential issues in loan quality. This could impact earnings.
Worry ifCredit losses exceed $0.6 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCredit losses remain at or below $0.6 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how the company is doing. They also give hints about the future.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income decline year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$57 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $175 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $878 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may raise worries about capital strength and rules.
Worry ifTangible equity ratio falls below 9.5% from 9.7% in Q1.
Less concerning ifTangible equity ratio stays above 9.5% or gets better.
Why it matters: A big drop in net interest income may mean lower loan yields and worse credit quality.
Worry ifNet interest income decreases more than 2% from $59.6 million in Q1.
Less concerning ifNet interest income remains stable or increases in Q2.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets may show higher credit risk and affect earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming assets increase to more than 0.30% of total loans.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets are still below 0.30% of total loans.
Why it matters: Growth in non-interest income shows a mix of income sources. This can boost profits.
Supportive ifNon-interest income increases by more than 5% from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Worry ifNon-interest income growth is less than 5% or declines in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: City Holding Company is growing well. Strong loan growth shows this.
Supportive ifLoans increase by more than $10 million from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoans increase by less than $5 million from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A lower ratio means better credit quality. It also shows good risk management.
Supportive ifNonperforming assets ratio drops below 0.24% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNonperforming assets ratio goes above 0.27% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows strong financial health. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board confirms the quarterly cash dividend of $0.87 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe Board announces a reduction or suspension of the dividend for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong capital ratios mean financial stability. They also show that rules are being followed.
Supportive ifCommon Equity Tier I ratio remains at or above 15.0% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCommon Equity Tier I ratio drops below 14.0% in Q3 2026.