Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$87.07-3.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHDN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87 CHDN trades at 13× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median, but our blended $83 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $57.85 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $248.42 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $53.82 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $106.04 | 10.4 | 16.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.32/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2021-Q2, 2021-Q3, 2022-Q1, 2022-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $87.93 |
| 16.1 |
| 5.47 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $111.14 | 15.3 | 7.28 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $35.09 | 0.8 | 42.74 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $91.08 | 13.6 | 6.72 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $40.71 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $94.20 | 14.0 | 6.72 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $106.75 | 15.1 | 7.06 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $119.82 | 15.3 | 7.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $38.63 | 0.8 | 47.06 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $106.38 | 13.6 | 7.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $110.02 | 14.0 | 7.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $127.57 | 15.3 | 8.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $41.13 | 0.8 | 50.10 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $113.26 | 13.6 | 8.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $117.13 | 14.0 | 8.36 | Analyst | medium |