Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$98.00+0.36%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHDN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHDN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. A copy of the news release issued by Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company") on October 28, 2026 announcing the results of operations and financial condition for the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section…
Why it matters: CDI bought back $48 million of shares in Q3 and approved a new plan. Actual purchases show whether it uses the added authority.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows the company bought back more than $48 million in shares during one quarter.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows no share repurchases, or less than $48 million, for a full quarter.
Why it matters: The temporary Salem site closed during construction. The new venue is planned to open in mid-2027, so delays could prolong lost business.
Watch forCDI reports that Rockingham Grand opens by mid-2027, after the planned $180-$200 million investment.
Also watch forCDI reports a delay beyond mid-2027 or a project cost above $200 million.
Why it matters: The new Championship Series with NYRA starts with these races. Record wagering would support the value of the event and its reach.
Supportive ifCDI reports that 2027 Derby Week or Oaks wagering tops the 2026 record.
Worry ifCDI reports that 2027 Derby Week or Oaks wagering is below the 2026 record.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $349 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,711 loss on $10,000 · 37.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.