Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$87.07-3.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHDN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
CHDN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. A copy of the news release issued by Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company") on July 29, 2026 announcing the results of operations and financial condition for the three months and six months ended June 30, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows the company is doing well. It also helps shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend of at least $0.438 per share for 2026.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend lower than $0.438 per share.
Why it matters: This acquisition could enhance Churchill Downs' brand and revenue potential in horse racing.
Supportive ifManagement shares plans for the Preakness Stakes deal and its expected revenue.
Worry ifThere are no updates or bad news about the acquisition's effect on revenue.
Why it matters: This event may increase brand awareness and betting activity. This could help revenue.
Supportive ifNBC Sports confirms the primetime broadcast of the Kentucky Oaks.
Worry ifNo confirmation or changes to the broadcast plans for the Kentucky Oaks.
Why it matters: Net bank leverage impacts financial health. It also affects future spending choices.
Worry ifNet bank leverage ratio improves to below 3.8x.
Less concerning ifNet bank leverage ratio increases above 4.1x.
Why it matters: Changes in tax laws could help cash flow. This affects how money is spent and invested.
Supportive ifA report shows a big drop in cash taxes. This is due to new tax rules.
Worry ifNo noticeable change in cash taxes despite new tax provisions.
Why it matters: The outcome may affect the company's asset plans and finances.
Worry ifResolving the legal issues gives a clear plan for selling gaming properties.
Less concerning ifMore legal problems come up. This delays asset sales and affects revenue.
Why it matters: More cash flow helps with investments and returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifCash from operations rises above $295 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow falls below $250 million. This shows possible operational problems.
Why it matters: High Adjusted EBITDA shows the company runs well. A drop may mean higher costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was over $250 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA was under $240 million for Q2.
Why it matters: A big rise in net income would show better efficiency and more profit.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 increases by 10% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 decreases or grows less than 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: The $180-$200 million investment is key for future growth. Delays may impact revenue plans.
Supportive ifLook for news about big construction milestones or the start of casino phases.
Worry ifFurther delays or lack of updates on the project timeline.
Why it matters: This investment is key for future growth and aligns with management's capital plans.
Supportive ifManagement says the Rockingham Grand Casino will open in mid-2027.
Worry ifDelays or budget problems are announced. This shows issues with the project.
Why it matters: Court cases could affect asset sales and the company's overall plan.
Worry ifA good court ruling or settlement lets asset sales happen without issues.
Less concerning ifA bad court ruling delays or stops asset sales.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth would signal potential issues in the business or market. It may affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 3% year over year would confirm weakening performance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth above 3% year over year would indicate continued strong performance.
Why it matters: Keeping net income above $80 million shows strong performance and good profits.
Supportive ifNet income attributable to CDI exceeds $80 million in Q2.
Worry ifNet income attributable to CDI falls below $80 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand and good management. It confirms the company's growth path.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth above 5% compared to the prior year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 5% compared to the prior year.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted EBITDA shows better profits and efficiency. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $480 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $480 million.
Why it matters: Results of lawsuits could change the company's plans and finances. Good results may help growth.
Worry ifThe company wins a lawsuit about property sales.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling or long lawsuits that affect business choices.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $312 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,015 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.