Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$98.18+0.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.43 → 7.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHDN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPEX remains within $180M to $220M in FY26 | A supporting condition in Churchill Downs Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $180M to $220M CAPEX FY26. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $250M or falls below $150M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $59M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $180M to $220M CAPEX FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202659,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a venue-expansion and operating-performance story, with recent financial results described as strong and earnings quality as robust. The multi-year view is in a watch state: company momentum has improved, but performance slipped notably over the past month and management execution is mixed.
The evidence describes CHDN as cheap versus peers, and valuation has fallen while company momentum has risen. The expectations gap is close to neutral, priced-in fragility is low, and the valuation model has low confidence, so the cheap comparison does not settle whether expectations are easy to meet.
Near term, recent results were in line, and the miss-risk assessment is quiet, though the evidence notes peer misses and a deep miss in CHDN’s recent history. Over the multi-year view, venue expansion could support the business, but delivery has varied by venue; capital returns are on track, while the Rockingham project remains under construction.
A key near-term swing factor is whether CHDN cuts guidance on its next call, which the evidence flags as a meaningful negative. Sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance are another signal: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CHDN’s thesis combines robust earnings quality and venue-development plans with uneven execution, elevated risk, and a recent weakening in performance. The main tests are guidance, venue delivery, and the direction of sector results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Churchill Downs Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.88 EPS FY26. |
| Broken |
| EPS guidance falls below $6.5 for FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.15 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.88 EPS FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20261.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $143M in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Churchill Downs Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $143M operating income Q1 2026. | Intact | operating income falls below $130M in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $143M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $143M operating income Q1 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 2026143,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $3.03B in FY26 | A primary condition in Churchill Downs Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.03B total revenue FY26. | Broken | total revenue falls below $2.9B in FY26 | Revenue: $696M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.03B total revenue FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026696,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.28 → $7.42 · observed estimates
$3.13B → $3.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.28 | $3,129,885,750 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.43 | $3,129,858,480 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.28 | $3,133,340,300 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.28 | $3,133,340,300 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.28 | $3,133,340,300 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.28 | $3,133,340,300 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.28 | $3,131,067,570 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.71 | $3,132,918,432 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.28 | $3,131,067,570 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.68 | $3,127,792,030 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.38 | $3,118,184,850 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.38 | $3,118,184,850 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.38 | $3,118,184,850 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.38 | $3,118,184,850 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.38 | $3,118,184,850 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.38 | $3,118,184,850 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.77 | $3,126,458,614 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.38 | $3,115,664,258 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.43 | $3,118,442,237 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.43 | $3,118,442,237 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.43 | $3,118,442,237 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.43 | $3,118,442,237 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.43 | $3,118,442,237 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.43 | $3,118,442,237 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.43 | $3,118,442,237 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.43 | $3,118,457,378 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.43 | $3,116,374,045 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.41 | $3,115,947,212 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.41 | $3,115,947,212 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.41 | $3,115,947,212 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.41 | $3,115,947,212 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.41 | $3,115,947,212 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.41 | $3,115,947,212 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.35 | $3,113,613,878 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.35 | $3,113,613,878 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.32 | $3,113,363,878 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.32 | $3,113,363,878 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.32 | $3,113,363,878 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.32 | $3,113,363,878 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.32 | $3,113,363,878 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.32 | $3,113,310,845 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.30 | $3,110,376,218 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.30 | $3,111,792,885 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.30 | $3,111,792,885 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.30 | $3,111,792,885 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.30 | $3,111,792,885 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.30 | $3,111,792,885 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.30 | $3,112,609,551 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.30 | $3,112,642,885 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.29 | $3,107,995,704 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.40 | $3,106,135,037 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.40 | $3,106,135,037 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.40 | $3,106,135,037 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.42 | $3,108,643,395 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.42 | $3,108,643,395 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.