Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Chegg Inc (CHGG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.60-6.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHGG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $5.5 million in Q2 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $5.5 million, showing focus on cost control. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA falls below $5 million in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround and growth-recovery story, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch, with mixed progress on management’s goals and recent performance below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to CHGG being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative. The valuation model has low confidence, so the discount does not by itself show that the market has fully accounted for the business challenges.
Near term, revenue fell from $63.3 million in Q1 2026 to $51.8 million in Q2, and gross margin declined from 60% to 55%; free cash flow improved from $3.1 million to $6.4 million. Skilling revenue growth slowed from 9% year over year to 2%, while Q3 gross-margin guidance is 48% to 49%; a guidance cut remains a risk, though the recorded miss risk is quiet.
The multi-year view depends on whether revenue growth returns, Skilling growth accelerates, and margins stabilize while cash flow remains strong. Near term, weaker jobs data or a guidance cut would add pressure; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would be a favorable signal, though the evidence for this sector read-through is limited.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CHGG’s thesis depends on turning mixed execution into sustained growth and healthier margins; the peer discount comes with high business risk and low valuation-model confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets a gross margin of about 51.5%. |
| Broken |
| gross margin falls below 50% in 2026-Q2 |
Gross margin: 52.16% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 51.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202652.162779 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improvement in EPS losses | A supporting condition in Chegg Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves to about -$0.07 next quarter. | Intact | EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.10 in 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $49.5 million in Q2 2026 | Chegg aims to stabilize revenue near $49.5 million next quarter. | Intact | revenue falls below $49 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $46.468M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$49.5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202646,468,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.05 → $-0.10 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.05 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.05 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.05 | $161,789,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.07 | $145,806,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.10 | $133,293,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.