Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Chemung Financial Corp. (CHMG)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$84.88-2.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.20 → 8.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHMG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities at least $9.0M in 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations increased from $7.2M to $9.0M. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $9.0M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $0 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.0M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CHMG is a regional bank with a multi-year thesis tied to commercial lending growth and improved earnings from its balance sheet. The thesis is currently intact, though management execution and recent performance are mixed rather than consistently strong.
CHMG is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence describes that premium as durable and broadly justified. The expectations gap is modest, while fragility is low, so the valuation evidence does not point to extreme expectations being built in.
Near term, recent results are uneven: the company missed its most recent quarter, and its momentum weakened. Over the multi-year view, net interest margin and net interest income have improved, while commercial loan growth remains solid but eased from Q2 to Q3; the announced dividend increase also shows progress on management’s priorities.
The near-term test is whether CHMG avoids another guidance cut after the recent miss. The multi-year case also depends on sustained commercial lending growth and balance-sheet earnings, while rate cuts could weigh on financial companies; continued strength among sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, CHMG’s thesis rests on continued delivery in lending and funding efficiency, balanced against expensive valuation and near-term execution risk. The evidence supports an intact but mixed long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividends per share rose from $0.32 to $0.34, showing steady shareholder returns. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.34 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 |
Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.34. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The raise represents a 5.9% increase over the prior quarterly dividend and brings total increases since the beginning of 2025 to $0.05 per share, or 16.1%,” said Anders M.” “Dividends declared during the third quarter of 2026 were $0.36 per share.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Net income growth to at least $9.2M in 2026-Q1 | Chemung Financial grows net income from $6.0M to $9.2M in one year. | Intact | net income falls below $9.2M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $12.707M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.2M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 202612,707,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $11.8M in 2026-Q1 | Operating income rose from $7.7M to $11.8M. | Intact | operating income falls below $11.8M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $16.509M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.8M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202616,509,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.48 → $8.44 · observed estimates
Unavailable → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.48 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.75 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.75 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.75 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.75 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.95 | $134,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.17 | $134,335,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.20 | $134,833,367 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.20 | $134,833,367 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.20 | $134,833,367 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.20 | $134,823,967 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.23 | $134,567,975 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.44 | $134,709,750 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.