Chemung Financial Corp. (CHMG)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$84.88-2.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHMG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHMG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2026, Chemung Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CHMG) issued a press release describing its results of operations for the three and nine month periods ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed filed for any purpose.
Why it matters: Higher deposit costs can narrow the gain from loan growth. Q3 costs rose for some large commercial accounts.
Worry ifThe next report shows the average cost of deposits that pay interest is above Q3's 2.30%.
Less concerning ifThat cost stays at or below 2.30%, while net interest margin stays at or above 3.74%.
Why it matters: The board raised the dividend to $0.36 per share in August. A cut would reverse that recent increase.
Worry ifA future dividend declaration is below $0.36 per share.
Less concerning ifA future dividend declaration stays at or above $0.36 per share.
Why it matters: The bank plans to bring three brands under one name. A smooth rollout would support its goal of a more consistent customer experience.
Supportive ifThe bank rolls out Canal Bank & Trust across its footprint in 2027, with no delay reported.
Worry ifThe bank delays or cancels the 2027 rollout, or reports customer service problems tied to the change.
Why it matters: Commercial loans drove recent growth in income. Growth slowed from 13.0% in Q2 to 11.7% in Q3.
Supportive ifYear-to-date commercial loan growth, at an annual rate, stays above 10% in the next report.
Worry ifThat growth falls below 10% in the next report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,063 loss on $10,000 · 20.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A wider margin can support more income from lending. It rose to 3.74% in Q3 from 3.67% in Q2.
Supportive ifThe next reported margin is above 3.74%.
Worry ifThe next reported margin falls below 3.67%.