Chemung Financial Corp. (CHMG)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.84+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHMG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The two one-year growth estimates are about the same.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CHMG — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-19
Other Events. On August 19, 2026, Chemung Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CHMG) issued a press release announcing an increase in its quarterly dividend of $0.02 per share, and the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.36 per share, payable October 1, 2026, to common stock shareholders of record as of the close of business on September 17, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can impact net interest margins. They can also affect banks' profits.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Also watch forFOMC cuts interest rates or keeps them unchanged.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good management. It means the company is doing well.
Supportive ifNet income increases year over year, surpassing $9.2M.
Worry ifNet income falls below $9.2M year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a potential slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifChemung's revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is still above the average. This shows strong operations continue.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. A change could shake investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend declared at $0.34 per share.
Worry ifQ3 dividend reduced below $0.34 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $270 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,063 loss on $10,000 · 20.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for Chemung's earnings. A slowdown could indicate weakening demand or competitive pressures.
Worry ifLoan growth for the year is below 7%.
Less concerning ifAnnualized loan growth remains above 7%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals potential challenges in the financial sector. It may affect Chemung's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income shows strong loan demand. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest income increases year over year by more than 15%.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Non-interest income matters for profits. A drop may show issues with fee services.
Worry ifIn Q3, non-interest income is less than $6 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, non-interest income is more than $6 million.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may show profit pressure from rising costs or competition.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 3.60%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains above 3.60%.
Why it matters: A decline in cash from operations could indicate financial strain. This is vital for ongoing operations.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $9 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations is above $9 million.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports Chemung's goal to increase operating income. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations grows each year. It is now over $9.0M.
Worry ifCash from operating activities drops below $9.0M year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would show a negative trend after recent earnings. Investors may react negatively to lower earnings.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $8.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reported above $8.5 million.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth would confirm the effectiveness of management's strategy and support future earnings. Weak growth could raise concerns.
Supportive ifCommercial loan growth is above 10% each year.
Worry ifCommercial loan growth is below 10% each year.
Why it matters: Holding the dividend at $0.36 would signal strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. A cut could indicate financial strain.
Watch forDividend payout remains at $0.36 per share.
Also watch forDividend payout is reduced from $0.36 per share.