Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.44-5.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.55 → 0.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHMI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities improves to at least $12 million | Cherry Hill Mortgage is improving cash flow from operations, reaching $12.6 million in 2026-Q1. | Broken | cash from operating activities falls below $10 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $17.03M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=12 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 202617,030,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CHMI is a rate-sensitive mortgage real estate business, with its thesis tied to portfolio management, the merger, and interest rates. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is stable, but recent financial performance is weak and earnings quality is loss-making.
The valuation evidence describes CHMI as cheap versus peers, with a 0.26 expectations gap and medium model confidence. The priced-in tag is unjustified, but fragility is low because no fragility gates fired; that does not remove the business risks.
Near term, the latest earnings were in line, following a reported beat in August, but recent performance remains well below the industry cohort. The regular dividend has been declared at $0.10 per share for three quarters, while earnings available for distribution to common stockholders fell from $5.5 million in 2026-Q2 to $5.2 million in 2026-Q3. The merger remains pending, and the evidence does not show clear progress in reducing portfolio risk.
Over the next few quarters, completion of the TPG Mortgage Investment Trust merger and continued support for the dividend are key execution questions. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate businesses, while a guidance cut or weakness among sector peers could weaken the setup. The next earnings report also matters, given the elevated risk and the 42% miss probability noted in the snapshot.
For the 1-to-3-year view, CHMI combines a peer-relative valuation discount and possible rate support with weak performance, elevated risk, and an uncompleted merger. The thesis depends on execution and earnings support improving without a guidance cut. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend payout at $0.10 per share | It maintains a steady dividend payout of $0.10 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.10 in 2026-Q4 | Dividend per share: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.10 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income stabilizes above $0.4 million | A primary condition in Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.4 million USD. | Intact | net income falls below $0.4 million in any quarter through 2026-Q3 | Net income: $-1.473M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.4 million USD. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Oct 29, 2026-1,473,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -60% YoY | A supporting condition in Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=-60% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds 60% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.55 → $0.53 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.55 | $19,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.55 | $44,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.55 | $44,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.53 | $43,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.