Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.96+0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Cash from operating activities improves to at least $12 million: OCF $12.6M (Q1) vs $12M target; Q2 OCF not reported.
Cherry Hill Mortgage is improving cash flow from operations, reaching $12.6 million in 2026-Q1. It maintains a steady dividend payout of $0.10 per share. Earnings per share are expected to rise to $0.57 in 2026. The company is managing to stabilize despite market headwinds.
Net income has declined sharply, from $7.86 million in 2025-Q4 to $0.43 million in 2026-Q1. Revenue is expected to shrink by over 60% next year. The sector faces headwinds and the stock price has fallen nearly 16% from its high.
The market prices in a 61% revenue decline and a 52% discount to fair value. Our view aligns with the expected revenue drop but sees potential for cash flow improvement and dividend stability.
Breaks if: cash from operating activities falls below $10 million next quarter
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.10 in 2026-Q4
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth scenario. The current thesis state is weakened, with recent performance showing a decline in quality and momentum.
The market seems to expect a justified valuation, but it is currently priced at a premium compared to peers. There is a negative expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.
Fundamentals are showing mixed results. While management is on track to maintain dividends and improve cash flow, the overall financial performance has been weak, with a notable risk of missing future earnings expectations.
The future of CHMI hinges on several factors. Key triggers include guidance updates from management, potential interest rate cuts from the Fed, and the performance of sector peers like AGNC and DX.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The primary reason is that CHMI's recent financial performance dropped significantly. It fell from the robust half to the weak half of its sector. Additionally, a downgrade from Citizens may hinder the completion of its merger with TPG Mortgage Investment Trust. This downgrade could also impact investor confidence.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to maintain a consistent dividend payout to shareholders.
Breaks if: net income falls below $0.4 million in any quarter through 2026-Q3
Manage portfolio and expenses to achieve consistent and positive net income results.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. GAAP net income improved from a loss of $2.0 million in 2026-Q1 to a positive $1.3 million in 2026-Q2, showing progress toward stabilizing earnings. The trajectory is delivering improvement consistent with management's stated focus.
“GAAP net income applicable to common stockholders of $1.3 million, or $0.04 per share”
“GAAP net loss applicable to common stockholders of $2.0 million, or $0.05 per share”
Breaks if: revenue decline exceeds 60% YoY in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CHMI faces significant challenges that could impact its performance. Not investment advice.