Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.96+0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHMI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHMI — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-10
on Form 8-K will not be deemed an admission as to the materiality of any information required to be disclosed solely to satisfy the requirements of Regulation FD. Important Information for Investors and Stockholders This communication is being made in respect of the proposed transaction involving the Company and Parent. In connection with the proposed transaction, the Company and Parent intend to file relevant materials with the SEC, including the Form S-4 that will contain a joint proxy stat…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifQ2 dividend remains at $0.10 per share, consistent with previous quarters.
Worry ifQ2 dividend is cut below $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in RMBS value can affect how well the company performs and how investors feel.
Watch forQ2 RMBS portfolio shows a net unrealized gain, reversing the $12.4 million loss in Q1.
Also watch forQ2 RMBS portfolio shows a further decline in value beyond the $12.4 million loss in Q1.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows care for stockholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a regular common dividend of $0.10 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or stopped, showing financial trouble.
Why it matters: Stable net income means better financial health. It also shows good efficiency.
Supportive ifGAAP net income reported above $1 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifGAAP net income goes back to negative or stays below $1 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,479 loss on $10,000 · 24.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable net income is important for growth and keeping dividends. Investors want to see recovery.
Worry ifNet income reported at or above $429,000 for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income falls below $429,000 or continues to decline.
Why it matters: Net income trends will show if the company is stable or facing problems.
Worry ifNet income shows improvement from $429,000 in Q1.
Less concerning ifNet income declines further from $429,000 in Q1.
Why it matters: The merger is a key growth strategy for Cherry Hill. It could enhance operational efficiency and financial strength.
Supportive ifThe merger closes in Q4 2026 with all required approvals obtained.
Worry ifThe merger does not close. This is due to regulatory or shareholder disapproval.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company will pay a regular dividend of $0.10 per share next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the common dividend payout.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a promise to shareholders. Cutting it may worry about money safety.
Watch forAnnouncement of a dividend payout of at least $0.10 per share for Q3.
Also watch forAnnouncement of a dividend payout below $0.10 per share for Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can maintain its dividend and improve cash flow. Investors will pay close attention to these results.
Watch forEarnings per share are better than expected. Cash from operations is also improving.
Also watch forEarnings do not meet expectations. Cash from operations goes down or stays negative.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Cherry Hill's performance. Slower growth may hurt its prospects.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Approval is needed to finish the merger. This could help CHMI grow and work better.
Supportive ifStockholders of both CHMI and MITT approve the merger at their respective meetings.
Worry ifOne stockholder group votes against the merger proposal.
Why it matters: Stabilizing net income is important for investor trust. It shows that operations are improving.
Supportive ifGAAP net income for Q3 shows a positive result or improvement from Q2's $1.3 million.
Worry ifGAAP net income for Q3 shows a loss greater than $1.3 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the merger is important. It can unlock value and improve operations.
Supportive ifThe merger closes on schedule in Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed or not happen. This could be due to rules or stockholder problems.
Why it matters: Better cash from operations shows stronger financial health. It helps keep dividends stable.
Supportive ifCash from operations rises above $12.6 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $12.6 million in Q3.