Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
ChargePoint Holdings Inc (CHPT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.96-3.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CHPT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase gross profit to improve margins | A supporting condition in ChargePoint Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Gross profit >= $29.6M next quarter. | Improving | Gross profit falls below $28M next quarter | Gross profit: $42.302M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $29.6M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 4, 202642,302,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround and growth story, not yet a durable, profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: execution has improved in some areas, but the recent signal has weakened and financial performance remains well below its industry cohort.
CHPT trades at a 1.63-times premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is moderate and the valuation model has medium confidence. The evidence points to an expensive valuation, but does not show that the full combination of weak performance and turbulence is priced in.
Near term, revenue growth and gross margins have improved, while adjusted EBITDA losses and operating expenses have fallen; management says revenue growth has met or exceeded guidance. Progress on reducing losses is mixed, and momentum recently dropped from 52.4 to 36.9 as the overall signal shifted to mixed. Guidance was reaffirmed as of July 31, 2026, but a cut on the next call is a stated risk; a recent earnings beat and a litigation filing add mixed signals.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on CHPT sustaining revenue growth within guidance, extending margin gains, and continuing to reduce operating losses. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
Over a 1-to-3-year horizon, the business shows measurable operating progress, but profitability, weaker recent momentum, and high risk remain central uncertainties. The long-term thesis hinges on continued execution and guidance delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Gross Margin. Second quarter GAAP gross margin was 36% as compared to 31% in the prior year's same quarter, and non-GAAP gross margin was 38% as compared to 33% in the prior year's same quarter.” “• Gross Margin. First quarter GAAP gross margin was 29% as compared to 29% in the prior year's same quarter, and non-GAAP gross margin was 32% as compared to 31% in the prior year's same quarter.” Gross profit was $32.486 million in 2026-Q3.
Reduce operating losses toward profitability | Operating losses have improved by $6.7M, showing progress toward profitability. | Improving | Operating losses worsen beyond -$53.8M next quarter | Operating income: $-34.059M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating losses <= -$47.2M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 4, 2026-34,059,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second quarter GAAP operating expenses were $76.4 million, down 15% from $89.7 million in the prior year's same quarter.” “First quarter GAAP operating expenses were $76.8 million, down 6% from $81.8 million in the prior year's same quarter.” Operating income was $-44.335 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Quarterly revenue within $90M to $110M guidance range | ChargePoint grows revenue within its $90M to $110M quarterly guidance. | Improving | Quarterly revenue falls below $90M or above $110M consistently | Revenue: $116.075M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90M and <= $110M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 4, 2026116,075,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.56 → $-3.80 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.56 | $485,678,649 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.56 | $489,499,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.65 | $502,399,257 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.79 | $500,627,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.62 | $500,998,934 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.59 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.59 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.80 | $504,116,141 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.