Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cipher Digital, Inc. (CIFR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.55-14.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CIFR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt and capital well | A supporting condition in Cipher Digital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No new large debt or legal issues. | Under Pressure | New major debt or legal problems arise | New $850M debt issued vs No new large debt target CIFR priced $850M 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 on Oct 16, 2026, constituting new major debt issuance. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CIFR is a high-risk growth story built around data center development and AI leases, rather than a proven, steady earner. The long-term thesis is supported by recent project and lease progress, but remains fragile because the company is loss-making and recent financial performance has been weak.
The available valuation model has low confidence and shows a premium versus peers, with optionality, or potential value from future opportunities, as the main reason for the gap. The evidence does not specify the market’s exact expectations, so it is unclear how much successful project execution and AI lease growth are already assumed.
Near term, results face pressure: CIFR has missed across recent quarters, including the latest one, and its signal recently shifted from cautious to restrictive. Over the multi-year view, delivery ahead of schedule on initial HPC capacity and additional contracted lease revenue support growth, while continued capital raising and debt obligations remain important risks.
The thesis depends on CIFR completing data center projects on schedule and expanding leases with large tenants while managing its funding needs. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates and stabilization in major technology companies are possible sector tailwinds, but do not resolve company-specific execution risk.
CIFR’s 1–3 year view combines real project and lease progress with loss-making results, recent misses, and high execution and funding risk. Evidence supports a watchful, uncertain thesis rather than a clear improvement in fundamentals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cipher Digital is improving cash flow from operations to $91.5M. |
| Broken |
| cash from operations falls below $50M next year |
Cash from operations: $-243.538M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 2026-243,538,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income losses shrink significantly | Net losses fell from $734M to $114M. | Under Pressure | net loss worsens beyond -$200M next year | Net income: $31.605M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net loss better than -$150M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 202631,605,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes near $35M | A primary condition in Cipher Digital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $30M. | Broken | revenue falls below $25M next year | Revenue: $26.701M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $30M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 202626,701,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.48 → $-0.36 · observed estimates
$0.87B → $0.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.48 | $873,488,390 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.48 | $873,488,390 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.48 | $873,488,390 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.48 | $873,488,390 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.48 | $873,488,390 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.16 | $798,872,236 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.52 | $853,789,640 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.52 | $853,789,640 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.52 | $853,789,640 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.52 | $853,789,640 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.16 | $798,872,236 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.52 | $853,789,640 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.52 | $850,450,390 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.16 | $798,872,236 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.28 | $855,725,350 | 4 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.28 | $855,725,350 | 4 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.23 | $862,129,580 | 3 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.28 | $795,384,990 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.29 | $800,496,459 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.27 | $801,153,539 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.27 | $801,153,539 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.27 | $801,153,539 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.27 | $801,153,539 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.27 | $801,153,539 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.27 | $801,153,539 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.27 | $801,151,976 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.27 | $800,131,272 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.27 | $802,584,368 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.27 | $802,584,368 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.28 | $806,083,181 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.28 | $806,083,181 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.27 | $809,706,807 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.27 | $809,706,807 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.27 | $809,721,807 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.29 | $803,728,388 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.29 | $803,728,388 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.29 | $803,728,388 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.29 | $803,728,388 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.29 | $803,728,564 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.28 | $807,720,830 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.28 | $807,720,830 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.28 | $807,720,830 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.28 | $807,720,830 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.28 | $807,720,830 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.28 | $807,720,830 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.28 | $807,720,830 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.29 | $806,930,354 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.29 | $806,930,354 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.29 | $806,930,354 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.29 | $806,930,354 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.29 | $806,930,354 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.29 | $806,930,354 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.29 | $806,930,354 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.29 | $810,525,592 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.29 | $810,525,592 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.29 | $810,525,592 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.29 | $809,877,973 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.29 | $809,875,401 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.29 | $809,875,401 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.29 | $809,875,401 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.29 | $809,875,401 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.29 | $809,875,401 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.33 | $795,440,370 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.36 | $798,587,290 | 5 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.