Cipher Digital, Inc. (CIFR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.50-19.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CIFR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CIFR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-10-16
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in
Why it matters: Cash from operations improved, but losses remain. Positive cash flow would support Cipher’s spending plan without more financing.
Supportive ifQ3 cash from operations is above zero, after $91.5 million was reported in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ3 cash from operations is below zero, reversing the $91.5 million gain in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Rent starts as each data hall is delivered. First rent would show that build work is turning into income.
Supportive ifCipher reports that the first Barber Lake data hall was delivered and rent began in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe first Barber Lake rent has not begun by December 31, 2026, or delivery moves past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Cipher plans to use most of the funds for Barber Lake and its computing site pipeline. The sale funds growth, but adds debt.
Watch forCipher reports that the $850 million sale closed and funds went to Barber Lake and its site pipeline as stated.
Also watch forThe sale fails to close, or Cipher reports that funds did not support the stated projects.
Why it matters: Cipher bears the first $359.3 million in costs above the initial budget. Higher costs could weaken project returns.
Worry ifCipher says Barber Lake costs are more than $359.3 million over the initial budget, before tenant refunds.
Less concerning ifCipher reports that extra Barber Lake costs stay at or below $359.3 million, or that tenant refunds cover costs above it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$585 on $10,000 · ±5.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,223 loss on $10,000 · 12.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,772 loss on $10,000 · 77.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Noteholders can ask for cash at par on November 1, 2030. Cipher’s ability to meet that date will test its funding plan.
Worry ifCipher says it lacks enough cash or committed funds for note repayments on November 1, 2030.
Less concerning ifCipher says it has enough cash or committed funding for note repayments, or redeems all notes before that date.