Cipher Digital, Inc. (CIFR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.74+2.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CIFR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CIFR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Cipher Digital Inc. (the “Company”) announced its results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Report”).
Why it matters: Stable revenue means Cipher Digital is getting past recent problems. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $40M. This suggests successful efforts to stabilize.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $30M. This shows ongoing problems with making money.
Why it matters: Smaller net income losses show progress in fixing financial issues. This means better profits.
Supportive ifQ2 net income losses are less than -$100M. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifQ2 net income losses are worse than -$120M. This shows ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: More cash from operations means better finances for Cipher Digital. They are stabilizing.
Supportive ifQ2 cash from operations is over $100M. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations is under $90M. This suggests financial problems continue.
Why it matters: This offering helps fund data center projects. It also improves cash flow.
Supportive ifThe offering closes on June 15, 2026. The money will be used as planned.
Worry ifIf the offering does not close or terms change, project funding will be affected.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$541 on $10,000 · ±5.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,151 loss on $10,000 · 11.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,138 loss on $10,000 · 51.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower net income losses signal better financial health. This could attract more investors.
Supportive ifNet income losses decrease by more than 15% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifNet income losses increase by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue shows the company can maintain its market position. This is vital for growth.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue remains flat or grows by more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue declines by more than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: New leases with big tenants will show growth in Cipher's business.
Supportive ifCipher has a new lease with a strong hyperscale tenant.
Worry ifNo new leases are signed, which may show weak demand.
Why it matters: Timely completion is crucial for revenue generation from the AWS lease. Delays could impact cash flow.
Supportive ifThe Stingray Facility will be done by September 2026 or earlier.
Worry ifDelays in construction will push completion past September 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing these projects on time is key for meeting customer needs and growing revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says both projects will be ready in September 2026. This is for initial capacity.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays in the construction timelines for either project.
Why it matters: Developing the Apollo site could help Cipher make more products. It may also strengthen its market position.
Supportive ifCipher reports progress on the Apollo site. They have secured permits and initial plans.
Worry ifThere are no updates on the Apollo site. This may mean there are issues with development.
Why it matters: Buying and developing the site could boost growth and improve market position.
Supportive ifThere will be news about the completed purchase and plans for the Apollo site.
Worry ifFailure to secure the Apollo site or delays in development plans.
Why it matters: Finishing this will show Cipher can meet its timeline. It will help revenue grow.
Supportive ifThe Stingray data center will be done by April 1, 2027, or sooner.
Worry ifConstruction delays push completion past the targeted date.
Why it matters: Getting new leases is important for revenue growth. It shows Cipher's strong market position.
Supportive ifThere is a new AI data center lease with a big hyperscale tenant.
Worry ifNo new leases announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is important. It helps keep operations running and supports growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations remains positive in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations turns negative again in the next quarter.