Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.92-8.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.05 → 2.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CIM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share | Dividend maintenance supports steady income. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $0.45 per share in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.45 per share quarterly. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20260.45 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CIM is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with fragile earnings quality, rather than a steady compounder. Its current long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak, but the evidence does not show a fresh break in the thesis.
CIM is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation signal has medium confidence. The overall priced-in tag is stretched, with a modest expectations gap; the evidence says weak execution is reflected, but not a broader stack of expensive valuation, weak execution, and market turbulence.
Near term, fundamentals face pressure after an August earnings miss and a further decline in company momentum. Management has maintained the quarterly dividend and reported earnings available for distribution around $45 million, while redeeming and selling seasoned loans and redeploying some capital into Agency RMBS. Execution remains uncertain, and the next results carry a higher-than-usual miss risk.
Over the next year, Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 3.88% could support rate-sensitive real estate businesses. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while weakness at sector peers could remove a recent sector tailwind. The multi-year view also depends on whether portfolio changes support earnings and dividend coverage.
For the 1-to-3-year view, CIM combines a peer-cheap valuation with weak recent performance and fragile earnings quality. The thesis hinges on execution, continued dividend coverage, and the rate and sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We generated solid earnings across the business and fully covered our dividend, despite the volatile environment,” said Phillip J.” “The dividend is payable on October 30, 2026 to common shareholders of record on September 30, 2026.”
Earnings available for distribution of $141 million | Earnings available for distribution were $141 million in 2025-Q4. | Intact | earnings available for distribution fall below $141 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to about -46% in next year | A supporting condition in Chimera Investment Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -46% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -46% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.19 → $2.00 · observed estimates
$0.34B → $0.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.19 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.19 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.19 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.19 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.19 | $342,590,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.19 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.17 | $341,770,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.17 | $341,770,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.17 | $323,525,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.17 | $376,959,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.09 | $303,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.05 | $288,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.05 | $415,423,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.05 | $415,423,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.05 | $415,423,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.05 | $415,423,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.05 | $415,423,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.93 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.00 | $411,798,800 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.