AMEXIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CIX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit margin improves or holds steady | Gross profit improved from $12.1M to $13.3M, proving margin gains. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $13M next quarter | Gross profit: $13.028M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $13M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202613,028,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsMonthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CIX is an industrial business with a recent growth and margin-improvement story, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased to medium and earnings quality remains fragile.
Valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes CIX as cheap versus peers, while another indicates a premium, so the overall value assessment is neutral. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility from expectations rather than a stacked set of expensive, weak, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, management is delivering on priorities: revenue, operating income, and gross profit were higher in 2026-Q2 than in 2025-Q2. However, consecutive earnings misses raise the risk of another miss, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
The next call is a key swing factor: a guidance cut would signal weaker execution, while continued delivery would support the current thesis. Industrials bellwethers such as ALLE, MSA, and BCO are also important signals, since their results and guidance could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustained revenue growth and margin improvement despite fragile earnings quality and elevated near-term risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Operating income increased in the third quarter and for the first nine months of 2026 compared to the same periods in 2025 due to higher sales and gross margin at Security Products and Marine Components.” “Operating income increased in the second quarter and for the first six months of 2026 compared to the same periods in 2025 due to higher sales and gross margin predominantly at the Security Products segment and to a lesser extent the Marine Components segment.” Gross profit was $13.028 million in 2026-Q3.
Operating income increases sustainably | Operating income rose from $5.65M to $7.05M, showing better cost control. | Intact | Operating income falls below $7M next quarter | Operating income: $6.39M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $7M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20266,390,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Operating income increased in the third quarter and for the first nine months of 2026 compared to the same periods in 2025 due to higher sales and gross margin at Security Products and Marine Components.” “Operating income increased in the second quarter and for the first six months of 2026 compared to the same periods in 2025 due to higher sales and gross margin predominantly at the Security Products segment and to a lesser extent the Marine Components segment.” Operating income was $6.390 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 5% annually | A primary condition in CompX International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year | Revenue growth: 10.12% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 4, 202610.115144 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “ Third quarter 2026 net sales increased over the comparable 2025 period primarily due to higher Marine Components sales to the towboat and industrial markets, and to a lesser extent, higher Security Products sales to the healthcare and tool storage markets.” “ Second quarter and year-to-date 2026 net sales increased over the comparable 2025 periods due to higher Security Products sales across a variety of markets including the healthcare, transportation, tool storage and distributor markets and higher Marine Components sales to the industrial market.” Revenue was $43.991 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.