Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.35-0.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.21 → 2.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CLMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce 2028 notes using additional liquidity | Calumet plans to reduce debt by using new cash. | Improving | No meaningful reduction of 2028 notes by 2028 | $150M redeemed vs material reduction target Calumet redeemed $150M of senior notes due 2028, supported by an S&P rating upgrade to B-. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk, cyclical business with a growth initiative in renewable fuels. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is making progress, while recent momentum has weakened and financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
CLMT is valued as cheap versus peers, and the model finds only a small gap between current expectations and its estimate. The valuation tag is justified, with low flagged fragility, but the evidence does not show that the low peer valuation removes the business risks.
Near term, results may remain uneven: recent earnings surprises have been erratic, though the assessed risk of a miss is low. In the latest quarter, operating cash flow turned positive, debt was reduced, and results improved in both Montana Renewables and Specialty Products and Solutions. These are meaningful signs of execution, but they do not yet erase the elevated risk or the recent drop in company momentum.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued cash generation and debt reduction, and on Montana Renewables and Specialty Products and Solutions sustaining their improvement. A guidance cut would be a clear negative; continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as LIN, ECL, and SHW would support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that tailwind.
The 1-3 year long-term thesis has real support from management’s recent execution, but remains on watch because performance is volatile, risk is elevated, and momentum has fallen. The key test is whether cash flow, debt reduction, and segment progress continue without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is improving its financial management. |
| Improving |
| Credit terms worsen or liquidity tightens in 2026 |
S&P upgrade to B-; $150M debt redemption S&P upgraded rating to B-; company redeemed $150M of 2028 notes using additional liquidity. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 10% revenue growth | A primary condition in Calumet, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.43 → $2.68 · observed estimates
$4.81B → $4.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.43 | $4,808,518,858 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.42 | $4,808,518,860 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.42 | $4,808,518,860 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.42 | $4,808,518,860 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.42 | $4,808,518,860 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.42 | $4,808,518,860 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.42 | $4,808,518,860 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.42 | $4,810,423,360 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.42 | $4,810,423,360 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.42 | $4,810,423,360 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.42 | $4,810,423,360 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.42 | $4,810,423,360 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.42 | $4,810,423,360 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.63 | $4,802,568,880 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.20 | $4,762,623,407 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.49 | $4,842,081,882 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.49 | $4,842,081,882 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.49 | $4,842,081,882 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.49 | $4,842,081,882 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.49 | $4,842,081,882 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.49 | $4,842,081,882 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.89 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.89 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.89 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.89 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.89 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.89 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.89 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.89 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.10 | $4,706,615,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.21 | $4,689,715,151 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.16 | $4,696,439,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.68 | $4,733,939,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.68 | $4,733,939,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.68 | $4,943,440,210 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.