Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.13-0.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Calumet plans to reduce debt by using new cash. It issued $150M in senior notes. Analysts expect 10% revenue growth next year. The company is improving its financial management.
Calumet is still loss-making and has volatile management. It missed earnings recently. Debt levels remain high and could hurt cash flow.
The price is about 41% above our fair value near $27. Analysts expect 10% revenue growth. We think the stock is overvalued given risks.
Breaks if: No meaningful reduction of 2028 notes by 2028
Plan to use additional liquidity from offerings to reduce 2028 notes when call premium steps down.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a turnaround investment focused on improving operational efficiency and profitability. The current thesis state reflects a cautious optimism as management is making strides in debt reduction and expanding capacity, but the company remains loss-making.
The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, with expectations for improvement. There is a low level of fragility in the current setup, indicating that the stock may not be overly sensitive to negative news at this time.
Management is on track with key priorities, including debt reduction and segment profitability improvements. However, the company has shown erratic earnings surprises, which could introduce some near-term risk despite a low probability of missing expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain momentum in its growth initiatives and manage external factors like inflation and sector performance. Key triggers include guidance updates and performance from sector bellwethers.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. S&P upgraded Calumet's credit rating to B- from CCC+. This suggests improved financial stability and supports debt reduction efforts. However, the company missed earnings expectations in its latest report. This miss raises concerns about its financial performance going forward.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Credit terms worsen or liquidity tightens in 2026
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, CLMT's success will depend on continued operational improvements and favorable market conditions. Not investment advice.