Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.60-7.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
CLMT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-15
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Eleventh Amendment to Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On September 11, 2026, Calumet, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the Eleventh Amendment to the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Eleventh Amendment”). The Eleventh Amendment amended the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of February 23, 2018 (the “Credit Agreement”), by and among Calumet GP, LLC, Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (the “Partn…
Why it matters: The first expansion phase is complete. Higher renewable fuel output would show that the next growth step is working.
Supportive ifCalumet names a start date for the next MaxSAF 150 phase. It then reports renewable fuel output above Q2's 7,011 barrels per day.
Worry ifCalumet delays the next phase, or renewable fuel output stays at or below 7,011 barrels per day.
Why it matters: SPS made $161.7 million in Q2, up from $44.3 million in Q1. A strong Q3 would show that recent gains lasted.
Supportive ifQ3 SPS Adjusted EBITDA is above $100 million, with strong output and sales.
Worry ifQ3 SPS Adjusted EBITDA is below $44.3 million, the Q1 level.
Why it matters: Debt paydown is a stated goal, and Q2 cash from operations was positive. Further debt cuts would show that cash supports this plan.
Supportive ifThe next results show another debt reduction paid for with cash from operations.
Worry ifDebt rises above its level after July's $115 million reduction. No new paydown is reported.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $426 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,616 loss on $10,000 · 26.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.