Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.13-0.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CLMT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-08
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Calumet, Inc. reported results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, pursuant to a press release. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabili…
Why it matters: The materials sector is declining. A shift to positive growth could signal recovery for Calumet.
Supportive ifSector data shows three-year revenue growth turning positive.
Worry ifSector data continues to show revenue decline.
Why it matters: New credit agreements show how Calumet manages its debts. This impacts cash flow and stability.
Watch forManagement shares new credit agreements. These will improve cash flow.
Also watch forNo new credit agreements or bad terms were announced.
Why it matters: Issuing these notes helps manage money needs and cash flow.
Supportive ifCompany announces it has issued $150M in Senior Notes.
Worry ifCompany fails to issue the Senior Notes or delays the process.
Why it matters: Rising feedstock costs have hurt profits. Watching this can show future earnings.
Worry ifFeedstock costs stabilize or decline, improving gross margins in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifFeedstock costs rise further, leading to increased price hikes and lower margins.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $363 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,501 loss on $10,000 · 15.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cutting the 2028 notes is important for the company's money health.
Supportive ifCompany says it has reduced the 2028 notes with extra cash.
Worry ifCompany says it has not made progress on the 2028 notes.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue decline continues year over year.
Why it matters: Cutting debt is important for financial health and future growth.
Supportive ifCalumet says it has cut at least $50 million in 2028 notes.
Worry ifNo progress on cutting the 2028 notes shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: Successful issuance would help Calumet's cash flow and financial options.
Supportive ifCalumet successfully issues the $150M Senior Notes by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo progress on the notes issuance shows ongoing capital problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Calumet can make more money after a recent miss.
Worry ifQ2 earnings show a loss greater than the previous quarter's loss.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings show a smaller loss or a profit.
Why it matters: Ongoing debt reduction shows financial health and management's focus on reducing debt. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThey announced an extra debt repayment of over $115 million in July 2026.
Worry ifNo announcements of debt repayment or an increase in total debt.
Why it matters: Changes in margins will show how well the company adjusts to new biofuel rules. This affects profits.
Watch forRenewable fuel margins rise a lot after the SET2 RVO announcement.
Also watch forRenewable fuel margins drop or stay the same after the SET2 RVO announcement.