Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Clover Health Investments Corp. (CLOV)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.48-4.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.10 → 0.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CLOV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve GAAP net income between $0M and $20M in 2026 | Clover Health is improving profitability with GAAP net income expected between $0M and $20M in 2026. | Improving | GAAP net income falls below $0 million in 2026 | Net income: $28.001M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0 USD million net income in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202628,001,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CLOV is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because its profitability record is recent and its earnings quality is still classified as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact: membership and revenue are growing quickly, while the company has reported two profitable quarters in 2026.
Valuation evidence is mixed and uncertain. One measure describes CLOV as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 29% premium; the model has low confidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the evidence does not show clearly what level of growth investors already assume.
Near-term, management’s 2026 priorities are largely on track: membership rose 48% year over year and second-quarter revenue rose 56%. GAAP net income was positive in the first two quarters, but full-year guidance remains modest at $20 million to $35 million, so sustained profitability is not yet established. The risk rating has risen to high, and the snapshot notes a history of misses despite a low current miss-risk estimate.
Over the multi-year view, the key test is whether CLOV can sustain GAAP profitability while delivering its 2026 membership and revenue goals. A guidance cut after the recent raise would hurt management credibility; continued weakness in jobs data could also weigh on healthcare businesses. Strong earnings and higher guidance from sector peers would be a supportive signal for the sector backdrop.
CLOV’s 1-3 year thesis rests on turning fast growth and recent quarterly profits into durable earnings, with high risk and conflicting, low-confidence valuation signals. The thesis is intact, but execution and guidance remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"In 2026, Clover is on track to have grown significantly and expects to deliver its first full year of GAAP Net Income profitability,” said Clover Health CFO Clay Thornton .” “"The underlying performance of our Medicare Advantage business continued to strengthen through the first half of the year, with cohort economics improving year-over-year as expected, giving us the confidence to raise our full-year 2026 outlook,” said Clover Health Interim CFO Clay Thornton .”
Grow Medicare Advantage membership by 46% to 154,000-158,000 in 2026 | Membership in Medicare Advantage plans is growing rapidly, targeting 46% growth to about 156,000 members. | Intact | Membership growth falls below 30% YoY in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We are continuing to bring our AI-powered Clover Assistant platform to more physicians and more members, empowering earlier intervention, more personalized care, and better health outcomes.” ““During the first quarter, we delivered strong performance across key metrics, driven by deeper clinical engagement, with Clover Assistant supporting earlier intervention and better outcomes for our members.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase total revenues to $2.81B-$2.92B in 2026, 49% growth YoY | A primary condition in Clover Health Investments Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.81 billion total revenue in FY26. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.5 billion in 2026 | Revenue: $743.167M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.81 billion total revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026743,167,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.10 → $0.10 · observed estimates
$3.40B → $3.55B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.08 | $3,402,266,844 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.08 | $3,402,266,844 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.10 | $3,402,266,840 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.08 | $3,402,266,844 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.15 | $3,563,984,050 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.15 | $3,563,984,050 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.15 | $3,563,984,050 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.15 | $3,563,984,050 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.10 | $3,506,450,646 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.08 | $3,575,117,313 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.10 | $3,533,831,946 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.10 | $3,552,205,557 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.10 | $3,552,205,557 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.10 | $3,552,205,557 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.10 | $3,552,205,557 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.10 | $3,552,205,557 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.10 | $3,552,205,557 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.10 | $3,552,205,557 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.