Clover Health Investments Corp. (CLOV)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.260.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Clover Health is improving profitability with GAAP net income expected between $0M and $20M in 2026. Membership in Medicare Advantage plans is growing rapidly, targeting 46% growth to about 156,000 members. Revenue is also expanding fast, guided to nearly $2.87 billion in 2026, a 49% increase. These show the company is on track to fix losses and grow.
Clover remains loss-making with leadership changes and legal issues. Profitability is fragile and revenue growth may slow. The company risks missing its 2026 profit goal and membership growth targets.
The stock trades about 23% below our fair value near $6.59. Analysts expect 32% revenue growth, roughly in line with management guidance. Our view is cautious on profitability but aligned on growth.
Breaks if: GAAP net income falls below $0 million in 2026
Deliver first full-year GAAP Net Income profitability driven by cohort maturation and operational efficiencies.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CLOV represents a turnaround investment focused on improving financial performance. The current thesis state is intact, with recent results showing strong revenue growth and a commitment to profitability.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that CLOV is seen as cheap compared to its peers. The valuation reflects a justified status, indicating that investors may not be overly optimistic about future performance.
Management has shown a mixed execution track record, with strong revenue growth and membership increases, but still facing challenges in achieving GAAP profitability. The near-term risk is low, but past performance includes significant misses, which could weigh on investor sentiment.
Key scenarios include the potential for a credibility hit if management cuts guidance after recent improvements, as well as the impact of broader economic conditions on healthcare stocks. Positive momentum from leading healthcare companies could provide a favorable environment for CLOV.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Clover Health is now expected to achieve GAAP profitability in 2026. Increased Medicare membership is likely to drive revenue growth by about 49%. Recent news supports this positive outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income improved from a loss of $49.3 million in 2025-Q4 to a profit of $28.0 million in 2026-Q2. Management reiterated full-year 2026 GAAP Net Income guidance of $20 million to $35 million and expects to achieve profitability. The trajectory is delivering.
“Improved Full Year 2026 guidance including GAAP Net Income between $20 million and $35 million.”
“Expect to meet or exceed full year 2026 outlook including first full year GAAP Net Income profitability.”
“We expect to achieve full-year GAAP Net Income profitability in 2026.”
Breaks if: Membership growth falls below 30% YoY in 2026
Continue market-leading Medicare Advantage membership growth to expand scale and clinical engagement.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Medicare Advantage membership grew from 106,323 in 2025-Q2 to 157,309 in 2026-Q2, a 48% increase year-over-year. Management has consistently guided for ~46-47% growth in 2026. The trajectory is delivering.
“Second quarter 2026 Medicare Advantage membership of 157,309, up 48% year-over-year.”
“First quarter 2026 Medicare Advantage membership of 155,773, up 51% year-over-year.”
“Average Medicare Advantage membership guidance of 154,000 - 158,000 for 2026, representing 46% growth.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.5 billion in 2026
Drive revenue growth through membership expansion and improved cohort economics.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $477.6 million in 2025-Q2 to $743.2 million in 2026-Q2, a 56% increase year-over-year. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.92 billion - $3.00 billion, representing 54% growth at midpoint. The trajectory is delivering.
“Total revenues of $743 million, up 56% year-over-year in Q2 2026.”
“Total revenues of $749 million, up 62% year-over-year in Q1 2026.”
“Guidance for total revenues between $2.81 billion and $2.92 billion for 2026, representing 49% growth year-over-year.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CLOV's success will depend on its ability to maintain growth and achieve profitability in a supportive sector. Not investment advice.